Speed dating i Ohio

Fighting this speeding ticket

2020.11.28 06:38 LoftedJester Fighting this speeding ticket

Hello! Last Tuesday I (19) received a speeding ticket. Unfortunately, it is my third in 12 months and a misdemeanor in my state (Ohio). I have had my license for 3+ years and never had a ticket before this year, 2020 sucks. Now I believe the this ticket is bogus for the following reason. I was caught going 50 in a 35, but on a road that people commonly speed on. There was moderate traffic traveling around 45+ mph. I was behind a group of cars and slowly approaching them at the 50mph mark. The cop was traveling in the opposite direction, we were both in our respective left lanes. He was surrounded by other vehicles, but as he saw me he flicked his lights on and did a 180. Vehicles in the distance behind me were gaining on me going faster than 50 mph, but it felt like I was the first vehicle he was able to turn around and pull over without hitting another vehicle. He read my speed via radar while moving. Additionally, I feel like I was mildly profiled for my vehicle, a 2007 Civic Si with tinted windows, something that looks faster than it really is. Weather was not an issue, it was dry and sunny out. The officer also told me I would not have to appear in court and that I could pay my ticket online, but when I try to do so it says "Ticket is not payable online," not sure if there is anything I can do with that.
I really think this ticket is ridiculous, but I have a court date set for Tuesday. I would really like to get it thrown out but I think I need more to my argument. Ohio State law says " No person shall operate a motor vehicle at a speed greater or less than is reasonable or proper, having due regard for the traffic, surface, and width of the street or highway and any other conditions, and no person shall drive any motor vehicle in and upon any street or highway at a greater speed than will permit him or her to bring it to a stop within the assured clear distance ahead." I believe my speed was reasonable given the surrounding traffic, and I was still at a more than reasonable distance behind the next vehicle to stop if it was necessary (It wouldn't have been).
Any advice or experience would be awesome. I don't know how the judge is and this is my first time having to go to court so I am not sure what to expect, but I am not going out without a fight. Hopefully I won't get the maximum sentence of 60 days in the slammer.
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2020.11.25 07:39 iammasont Design Student with MacBook finally converting to the PC Master race

What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
Photoshop, Illustrator, Indesign, After Effects + C4D/redshift & Notch
I’ll also be getting into Unreal Engine beginning next year.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
Mildly flexible here but I’m shooting for under $3K. (A little overshoot is okay)
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
As soon as I find the parts!
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
A monitor with high color accuracy is the biggest thing. I’m thinking 27” 4K but that’s me talking & not my wallet unless a deal exists.
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
Ohio, USA with a Microcenter a hop & skip away.
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
Beyond my janky Logitech mouse, everything is new.
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
Not too sure at this moment, but I’d like the openness for the GPU.
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
Big storage as I pass heavy PSD’s constantly (1.7GB on average) and wanna get more into photography & motion design For speed I’m thinking a AMD/RTX 3090 combo
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
Either white with black components/white LED, Or blacked out with tasteful white LED’s.
I like NZXT’s cases and the smaller form factor of the 5/700 series’
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?
Yes & I believe pro is what I need for my purposes
Extra info or particulars:
I’m coming from a 2018 Space grey MacBook, so I’m used to aesthetics while not exactly having speed to match. Ideally this build would have a fair balance. I’m pretty ignorant to a lot of the specifics on PC as I’ve been learning from the school of YouTube, please excuse anything unrealistic.
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2020.11.24 07:00 LonghornMod [11/24/2020] Tuesday's Off Topic Free Talk Thread

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2020.11.23 22:16 brzztffn Felony speeding ticket given by officer who paced my speed.

Hello all, last week I got a speeding ticket going 46 in a 25. Last I saw the speed limit was 40mph, and then dropped down at some point. I drove past the officer who decided to follow me, and recorded my max speed, going downhill, at 46mph. My speedometer never showed above 40, but the previous owner put bigger rims and tires on my truck.
He also didn't wear a mask when he approached my truck either (which is annoying in and of itself).
Now I have a court date in December 8th, during a final exam of mine. I tried calling to get it moved and haven't gotten an answer from the courthouse.
Is there any way I can fight this, and keep my license/not gain any points? The whole situation just feels ridiculous in my opinion and I can't afford $1k+ in court and ticket fees. I tried contacting a lawyer, but they all want $500 or more to help out.
I got the ticket in Hamilton County, Ohio. City of Montgomery. I live in Ohio as well.
Thanks for your help! I'm at a total loss right now...
submitted by brzztffn to legaladvice [link] [comments]

2020.11.21 18:37 AgAuSeller [NEGATIVE] sidewayslipper (buyer)

This is a follow-up to a previous post on this buyer. I am in search of information if anyone is able to help. Just to get everyone up to speed, please refer to my previous post describing the transaction: https://www.reddit.com/PMsFeedback/comments/inn1y5/negative_sidewayslipper_buye
I have since filed claim in the lower courts in Columbus, Ohio. So far, this buyer has failed to respond or report for the mediation proceeding. The court date is approaching. I called the Hamilton, Ontario, Canadian police department to file a complaint for fraud. They instructed me that I had to first start with my local police department. So I have since filed a police report with my local police department who then will coordinate with a Hamilton, Ontario Canadian police department. I do have the address of this buyer where I was instructed to ship in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Parcels addressed to that location have since been returned as sender unknown. I do not know if this is in fact the case this buyer has moved or if they are simply using this as a shield to attempt to prevent delivery. I also have an alternate address provided by the buyer on the PayPal transaction that I believe to be the home of his parents.
An interesting sidenote is that since filing claim, I was contacted by the producers of the show Judge Mathis to see if I was interested in having the case dismissed and settled on their show taping in Chicago. So far, I have declined. It would likely take agreement by both parties anyway.
The account for this buyer has since been deleted from Reddit. I do not know if this was initiated by the buyer or by the moderators. It is quite possible that this buyer has opened up a new account under a different name. If anybody has information or done transactions with the person(s): Waheed Moe or Saidi Moe, at least formerly of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, I would appreciate any contact information that you have. Please send me a personal message as I am not looking to post this information publicly.
I am also in the process of filing a claim against PayPal concerning this transaction. Honestly, I am waiting for them to turn me over to collections as I have an ongoing negative balance on my account related to their refund for this transaction. Then, I may add on a claim for defamation of character as well. If for any reason these measures do not get me the relief that I am looking for, I still have a few steps that I will take. I have the contact information for a private investigator in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada who will track down this individual. As a last resort, I have a private collector I use to obtain debts that have gone unpaid by traditional methods.
I certainly appreciate any help or information you may be able to provide. I will keep you updated.
submitted by AgAuSeller to PMsFeedback [link] [comments]

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2020.11.18 17:13 Gmarcott42 Intro gaming and podcasting PC at $1000 budget. Any help appreciated!

What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
Hello, I'm building a PC for a friend who is interested in gaming as well as vocal recordings and podcasting. I don't know too much about microphones but here's the overall build I threw together. Since he's just getting into gaming and needs all the peripherals, he's only going to be gaming at 1080p. As far as games go, he'll play all sorts of things including new high quality RPGs, so the power power we can fit into the budget, the better.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
$1000, potentially a hair higher but not much.
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
Sometime relatively soon, looking to take advantage of current deals.
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
PC, monitor, microphone. Already acquired the windows key for like $15 online.
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
Ohio, USA. Microcenter is under an hour away, so yes.
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
A few of the parts will be sold to him from friends. The CPU from me is a Ryzen 2600, we don't know the model of the case but its ATX with a slight mesh front, a window, a red trim, and feet a few inches tall. The PSU is also used, but its only a few years old and a 550W. EVGA non-modular 80+ Silver
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
What type of network connectivity do you need? (Wired and/or WiFi) If WiFi is needed and you would like to find the fastest match for your wireless router, please list any specifics.
Wi Fi card
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
Case will be purchased used at a cheap friend-discount of around $60, unsure on a fair price yet.
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?
No, this has already been acquired for $15.
Here is a baseline build I have laid out for him: https://pcpartpicker.com/list/gTkdbh PCPartPicker Part List
Type Item Price
CPU AMD Ryzen 5 2600 3.4 GHz 6-Core Processor $100.00
Motherboard Asus PRIME A320M-K Micro ATX AM4 Motherboard $55.49 @ Amazon
Memory OLOy 16 GB (2 x 8 GB) DDR4-3000 CL16 Memory $49.99 @ Newegg
Storage Western Digital Blue SN550 500 GB M.2-2280 NVME Solid State Drive $53.99 @ Amazon
Video Card MSI Radeon RX 5700 XT 8 GB MECH OC Video Card $369.99 @ Newegg
Power Supply EVGA 550 W ATX Power Supply $30.00
Operating System Microsoft Windows 10 Home OEM 64-bit $15.00
Wireless Network Adapter TP-Link TL-WN881ND PCIe x1 802.11a/b/g/n Wi-Fi Adapter $17.98 @ Amazon
Monitor MSI Optix G241 23.8" 1920x1080 144 Hz Monitor $169.99 @ Newegg
Custom Rode PodMic Dynamic Microphone, Black (PodMic) $100.00
Custom Friend's Case $65.00
Prices include shipping, taxes, rebates, and discounts
Total $1027.43
Generated by PCPartPicker 2020-11-18 11:07 EST-0500
My thoughts on this are that overall its pretty good, the GPU seems almost too good to be true but I don't know if a 5700XT is overkill for a 1080p144Hz monitor. For longevity, I expect it will last him awhile at 1080p. Upgrading the monitor to 1440p seems like it would put us over budget and the only way I see to balance that out would be a cheaper graphics card, which seems to defeat the purpose of a higher end monitor.
Any other feedback is appreciated, we've been trying to get our friend to build a PC for awhile so expediting this part of the process for him will speed that up!
submitted by Gmarcott42 to buildapc [link] [comments]

2020.11.10 18:14 Erhard_Eckmann [Econ] Urban Renewal Megaproject

Urban Renewal Megaproject

An initiative begun by President Rubio and endorsed by the Republican Party, the Urban Renewal Projects designate a shift in focus in American cities from building out, to building up. After the refocusing of the Republican Party policy, a hard look was taken at city policies to help minority groups thrive economically, along with their businesses. It was determined that the best way to uplift minority groups across the United States would be to improve their quality of life and cities. Almost every major city in the United States has been neglected close to the city center almost since its inception, while new infrastructure expands the city limits. A mindset has formed that the wealthy keep moving out to newer infrastructure while the inner city is filled with minorities and public squalor, but that needs to change. If American cities can uplift their interior and overhaul their public image, the quality will improve, their property values will rise, and their wealth will grow as businesses thrive. The Republican Party is looking at making such economic growth possible, and has created the Urban Renewal Projects to give grants to municipalities to overhaul their jurisdiction by using Federal funding. President Rubio has set his priorities on Rust Belt Cities, Deep South Cities, Economic Hubs, and Aging Cultural Centers. The following cities have been designated as Urban Renewal targets:
  • Montgomery, Alabama
  • Mobile, Alabama
  • Jackson, Mississippi
  • New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Little Rock, Arkansas
  • Fayetteville, Arkansas
  • Memphis, Tennessee
  • Nashville, Tennessee
  • Savannah, Georgia
  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Columbia, South Carolina
  • Charleston, South Carolina
  • Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Raleigh, North Carolina
  • Norfolk, Virginia
  • Richmond, Virginia
  • Alexandria-Fairfax, Virginia
  • Washington D.C
  • Baltimore, Maryland
  • Louisville, Kentucky
  • Charleston, West Virginia
  • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • New York City, New York
  • Buffalo, New York
  • Boston, Massachusetts
  • Detroit, Michigan
  • Grand Rapids, Michigan
  • Cleveland, Ohio
  • Columbus, Ohio
  • Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Chicago, Illinois
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Los Angeles, California
  • Seattle, Washington
  • San Francisco, California


One of the most notable and most complained about issues facing urban America is the quality of roads. It goes without saying, Alabama and Mississippi are not famous for their excellent roadways. It is very easy for a road to be build and be completely forgotten about. In some cases, decades have gone by where potholes have not been filled, lines have not been repainted, and storm drains haven't been dug. The United States loves to build something, and completely forget about maintenance; the Projects are a perfect example of this. Roadways that haven't been paved in over 20 years will be slated for reconstructing. These roadways will be slated for storm drain installation to keep the road tops clear. For those large roadways that cut through residential areas, noise walls will be installed where possible. Roadway quality will have to be certified to ensure it meets regulations and safety needs. Traffic cameras will be installed where possible to monitor traffic and enforce traffic laws. Major roads will receive lane additions to hold more traffic, but downtown areas will be given a specific bus/bicycle lane if not present already. This will help keep slow bus traffic and distracting bicycles off to the side. Where possible, traffic lights will be gradually phased down for favor of roundabouts to keep cities moving.

Mass Transit

One area that the US is significantly lacking is in mass transit. Only a handful of cities have subway systems, but all of them could greatly benefit from having them. Firstly, the existing subway systems like the New York City Metro and the DC Metro will need extensive upgrading, they are significantly outdated because their cities have no interest in keeping them up. The existing metros will be upgraded and given an overhaul for cleanliness and aesthetic purposes. New rolling stock will be brought out as well. For the remaining cities, while most have some sort of overground tram, they will be given funding to set up their own subway service. They will actively service the downtown areas and spread out expansively into the suburbs, this will allow for connection from the inner city to the outskirts so that when the urban renewal builds the city up and people begin to move back downtown, there will be total coverage of the area. It will be up to the municipalities what they charge and what they spend on maintenance and upgrading, but the federal government will provide 20% of whatever the expense is to maintain after construction.

Commercial and Residential Development

In the downtown areas, old, rundown, and empty buildings will have the land auctioned off to land developers so that high-rise residential and commercial buildings can be built in their place. Citizens will be asked if they would be willing to relocate and sell their inner-city land to developers so the area can be uplifted. No one will be forced to move, and it will completely be a by choice decision. In areas where the roads are being extended, if it would cut through a building, only in that case will eminent domain be used. All historical structures will be protected and retained in their current place. If there are residents that would prefer to remain in their place, developers will be allowed to bargain with the homeowners for the development to take place. Out of the rubble of the old, skyscrapers will rise up across the downtown areas with large-scale residential buildings to bring life back to the downtown areas. Cities will be recommended to institute a "no additional suburban expansion" policy, so that high-rises will gradually begin populating the city areas, and land can be preserved. American cities will gradually begin to look like the rest of the world, as apartment buildings will replace large suburban projects, mixed-use buildings along the street will house residents on the higher floors, and have commercial space on the lower floors to keep the cities vibrant. Old telephone lines will be removed, and external cabling will be integrated into underground systems to clean up the streets. Internet service cabling will also be upgraded to fiber-optic or the equivalent latest standard so that the utilities in America's urban areas will be the most up-to-date, which will allow for an overall increase of American internet speeds. On the tops of large commercial buildings, companies like Verizon, AT&T, among others will be permitted to install their latest 5G services to keep Americans connected as the height of cities grow.

Waste & Recycling Management

One of the biggest complaints for American cities is the poor waste management system, and how it contributes to a perception of unclean cities. Take New York for example, it is notorious for being an unclean city, but there is no reason it has to be that way. Cities should prioritize keeping up a clean image, and the federal government is willing to provide funding and services to keep it that way. Cities have been recommended to create volunteer public service programs for students or seniors to help clean their city, whether it be cleaning graffiti, picking up trash, or crosswalk assistance prior to school hours, there are plenty of opportunities that can be made available for those who want to make a difference in their cities. Recycling services should become customary in every city that doesn't have it already. Bulk trash pick-up days should happen once a month, even in cities, and trash routines should take place at minimum twice a week. While trash trucks are excellent for handling the cans and large dumpsters, oftentimes bags are left at the street level out of pure laziness. Shortly after trucks make their rounds, a smaller pickup with a small crew should roll through and collect any remaining trash and debris to help eliminate the perception of dirty American cities. Public trashcans should be made abundant, and as frequently emptied as the trash service takes place. Restaurants, grocery stores, and food-service businesses will also have a food-waste bin, which will be specifically for these types of businesses that will rotate as a trash service. The waste will be taken to natural composts which can be processed into fertilizer and bought back for local farmers, which is an innovative way for municipal governments to make money. Recycling can also be cleaned, and then sold back to manufacturing companies looking for raw materials like plastic, metals, aluminum, and glass. Sure, it will cost a little bit of money to keep America's cities clean, but the investor appeal and public enjoyment of the cities is priceless. It could be maneuvers like this that revitalize old cultural cities like Montgomery.

Cleaning Waterways

The various harbors, ports, bays, lakes, and rivers of America's cities are often one of the primary appeals for the location and tourism in the first place. The residents of the DC area would love a cleaner Potomac, as would those of LA and the bay. While America has been very keen to allow industrial ports and companies to thrive, it has often been at the expense of the residents of the city. There is no reason why these municipalities cannot have both good environment and economical success. For ports and lakes, city governments will subsidize submersible drones to help clean the undercarriages of freighters and outgoing vessels, to prevent trash sticking to them or bio run-off from other areas of the globe. Port authorities will be connected with businesses like 4Ocean to help turn old retired vessels into skimmers for lakes, oceans, rivers, and bay areas to pick up remnants of storm damage and other trash. For more narrow areas, the 4Ocean patrol vessels can be purchased to help clean the waterways. The federal government will provide subsidies to help make these options affordable to the cities, which will allow them to focus on cleaning up their near waterways. Lakes, and rivers near cities are typically used for tourism, fishing, and sometimes drinking water. The EPA has been tasked with being more proactive about testing these waters to make sure they are safe for drinking, and recreational activities. If pollutants and chemicals are detected that should not be present, they will notify the local authorities to put out a notice and will begin an investigation that could end up in a lawsuit, or evicting the person or organization responsible.
submitted by Erhard_Eckmann to Geosim [link] [comments]

2020.11.07 21:48 Quirky-Motor EXTENSIVE write up and timeline of the 1951 case of the missing child Beverly Rose Potts from Cleveland, Ohio. How can a child disappear in a distance of only 300 feet? Part 1 of 2

The disappearance of Beverly Potts
Beverly Rose Potts was born to Robert and Elizabeth Potts in 1941 in Cleveland, Ohio. Robert worked as a stage hand at a theater and Elizabeth was a dancer and singer. Robert was an American while his wife, Elizabeth was an immigrant from Hungary. In the early 1900s Cleveland boasted the largest Hungarian population in the world outside of Budapest and many families such as the Potts, were of Eastern European descent. Poles, Lithuanians, and Hungarians made up a large percentage of Cleveland’s population. In 1924, Robert and Elizabeth met at work and married at age 24. After nearly five years of marriage, the couple gave birth to their daughter, Anita, in 1929 and bought a home on Linnet Avenue near Halloran park on Cleveland’s west side. Throughout the 1930s, many family members moved in and out of the Potts’ home as everyone tried to stay afloat until better days (Badal, 2005).
In 1941 when Anita was twelve years old, the Elizabeth and Robert, now aged 41, found out that they were going to be parents yet again. But rather than fret, the Potts welcomed this new addition to the family and rather than referring to Beverly as a surprise, a mistake, unplanned or an “oops baby” Elizabeth always corrected others and said that Beverly “wasn’t an oops baby, she was a miracle child” (Badal, 2005).
By 1951 the miracle baby Beverly was 10 years old and was due to start 5th grade in September. At this point the house of Linnet Avenue was home to only five people, the parents, one cousin of Elizabeth’s named Betty Morbito, Beverly, and Anita who had recently graduated college and moved back home only weeks before. Anita was working at a cash register company, Elizabeth was staying home, and Robert was still working at the theater.
According to papers at the time, that weekend was nothing out of the ordinary. The Potts family had an outing planned for August 25th. They were going to have a picnic at Euclid beach park. Beverly was excited for the outing and had declined a party invitation because of the plans with her family. Although the papers widely reported this family outing, Anita does not remember this being the plan and thinks the reports in the papers were simply a mix-up or a mistake (Badal, 1951). Whether or not this outing was planned, reports all agree that Beverly had no reason to run away from home on August 24th 1951.
The Disappearance
On Friday, August 24th Beverly and her best friend, next door neighbor Patricia “Patsy” Swing, planned on going to Halloran Park to attend a Showagon. A Showagon is an old-fashioned type of festival which was usually put on by parks departments in large cities. Showagon is similar to a talent show. Local kids and teens could audition to do a piece for the Showagon and the winners would go to a different park in the city each weekend and put on a show for local residents. The acts were things like singing, dancing, and or playing an instrument. As far as I can tell, there are no rides or vendors, just local talent entertaining their neighbors.
Halloran park near Beverly’s home was well established and old trees graced the area. However, this vegetation made the park pitch black at night and lampposts were unable to pierce the darkness completely. During the daytime Halloran park served an approximately 100,000 youngsters but at night it attracted transients to its benches. Empty wine bottles and smoked cigarettes could be found strewn about the grounds nearly every morning. Additionally, at least two “sex attacks” had happened in the park in the months leading up the Showagon, as well as a few instances of things like groping which had been reported to the police.
Before we go on, I think it is important to get a better picture of Beverly. Beverly was thought to be a rather quiet, shy, and obedient girl according to both teachers and family members. Neighbors trusted Beverly to babysit their little children, and one woman reported that Beverly even walked her daughter to Kindergarten every day. These parents described Beverly as responsible and cautious. Her parents said she was shy around new people, especially boys and men. Elizabeth said she had told Beverly extensively about the dangers of unknown men and cautioned her about getting into cars with others. She reminded her daughter to be careful if she noticed someone was following her. On at least one occasion Beverly had fled from someone she thought was following her in the neighborhood and returned home promptly. Her friends at school said she had one crush on a boy in the grade but she was too shy and nervous to ever talk to him.
All this to say, Beverly seemed to be aware of “stranger-danger” and was at least taught to be aware of her surroundings. According to Anita, the Potts never hit their children and instead grounded them for misbehavior. Only a few days before her disappearance, Beverly had missed her curfew several days in a row and was subsequently grounded. Elizabeth revealed this was a common issue for Beverly. For example, if Elizabeth reminded her to come home at 3 pm because they had company, Beverly would stay out much later, 5 or 6 pm and say she had lost track of time. It did does not appear that Beverly would stay away from home at night or that Potts would allow her to stay out late. Typically, they expected Beverly home before dark. Besides this, the Potts reported that Beverly had no behavior problems and had never run away from home.
On August 24th, Beverly who was grounded, asked to attend the Showagon at Halloran park, a mere 1/8th mile from her home. Elizabeth allowed her to go as she knew it was a special event that only happened once a year. The edge of the park was close to Potts’ home but at 13 acres, the area spanned three city blocks and it appears that the actual show was farther away from Linnet avenue than is generally assumed, about ¼ to 1/2 of a mile. In order to get back home from the Showagon, Beverly would have had to have traveled northeast through the park, crossed West 117th street and then walked down Linnet Avenue.
A little before 7 pm Beverly and her mother finished washing dishes and the adults sat down to watch a Major League baseball game on TV. Beverly went next door to get her friend Patsy and the girls rode their bikes to Halloran park a little after 7 pm. By 7:30 pm the park was so crowded that the girls decided that navigating their bikes through the crowd was too difficult, so they rode their bikes home and opted to walk back to the festival. Later reports estimate that approximately 1,500 people were in the park that evening.
By 8:10 pm the friends were back at the park and watching the show. When darkness began to creep over the horizon, Patsy who was supposed to be home by dark, asked Beverly to leave. The girls got into a small tiff and Beverly insisted that she was allowed to stay until the end of the show. At approximately 8:40 pm Patsy left the show and later said Beverly was mesmerized watching some dancers on stage when she last saw her. (This story would later change some but her initial story was simply Beverly was watching dancers on stage.) Patsy arrived home at little before 9 pm.
At around 9:30 pm to 9:45 pm the show had ended and people were leaving the Showagon in mass. The Potts assumed Beverly would be home soon. When she did not arrive within a few minutes, Anita called the Swings who reported that Patsy had been home more than 30 minutes. Robert fetched the neighbors and began looking all over the park for Beverly. When they arrived Halloran park was nearly empty. After an hour of futile searching, the Potts called the Cleveland police department at least three times. The police finally arrived later at around midnight. Their first order of business was to search the Potts home from top to bottom, which they did twice before searching the neighborhood and the park, but there was no sign of Beverly (Missing in Ohio, 2019).
The next few days tips poured into the police department and newspapers as witnesses reported sightings of Beverly and recollections about the night in question. A few of the more promising leads and sightings are detailed below.
The two most talked about sightings online are the witness reports of Patsy Swing and another boy named Fred Krause. Initially, Patsy reported that Beverly was watching the dancers on stage when she left, however, in the subsequent months and years Patsy was interviewed and reinterviewed by law enforcement. In these sessions she often felt pressure to remember new things from the evening, so it is important to take Patsy’s thoughts with a grain of salt. Most online sources about the case report that when Patsy left the show, she turned back to see Beverly, who was standing near a short plump woman who was resting a hand on Beverly’s shoulder. In one account this short woman was holding the hand of a small child. The woman may have had a child performing in the Showagon. This is widely reported but this is not the story Patsy initially divulged. This is an odd memory for two reasons. First, Patsy did not remember this for some time and did not report it in her first few interviews. Additionally, Patsy said she and Beverly were straining to see over the other guests, so their placement in the crowd is an odd place for a short woman to choose unless of course her intentions were bad. Because of these reasons this memory has to be taken with a grain of salt (Badal, 2005).
The next credible sighting of Beverly took place at approximately 9:30-9:45 pm by a boy named Fred Krause. Krause was a 13-year-old boy who lived on Linnet avenue and was slightly acquainted with Beverly. He explained in interviews that he did not know Beverly’s name but he recognized her as neighbor because he delivered newspapers and he vaguely remembered that one girl on the street and at his school who “walked like a duck.” He spent the evening riding his bike through the park while his father watched the Showagon. His mother watched from the porch of their home and saw her son several times throughout the evening. At approximately 9:40 or 9:45, there was an announcement that the show was over and attendees began filing out of the park. Without the lights of the stage on, it was miserably dark. As Fred began peddling out of the area, he almost collided with a young girl who was walking northeast out of the park near the intersection of West 117th and Linnet Avenue. This girl was about 150 feet from the cross walk. Fred said this girl was walking “like a duck” and it was so dark he almost hit her when he drove by. He explained that the girl was not walking on the path like most of the guests and was instead a few feet away from the walkway on the grass. He had to toot his horn or bell as he passed her. More than a week later Fred mentioned this to his mother who insisted that he go to the police. In this witness sighting, Beverly was among a throng of people exiting the park and although it was dark, she was not alone or in an isolated area. This sighting is regarded by many to be the last confirmed sighting of Beverly Potts (Badal, 2005).
Showagon attendees were encouraged to call the CPD to report if they saw Beverly that night in order to give statements and eventually twenty-five people came forward to say their piece. One witness, Mr. Vorell was at the Showagon with his children when he observed at dark colored coup with a man in his 50s inside who was cruising the area and watching young kids, mostly girls from his car (Badal, 2005).
Several witnesses reported seeing two young men aged 17-20 watching very young girls in the park at about 7-8 pm. The men were on foot. One man had thick, dark, wavy hair and the other was a blonde. Three additional Showagon guests reported seeing a girl matching Beverly’s description talking to two men matching this description while they were in a car, a dark green or black 1937 or ’38 dodge coup. These sightings were in between 9:15- 9:30 pm. No one saw Beverly enter the car, she was simply seen talking to the men. One person placed this event at 8:30 pm although most witnesses remembered it being between 9:15-9:30 pm (Badal, 2005).
One crowd member reportedly saw Beverly playing near the back door of a convertible car as late as 10 pm, but other guests reported that by 10, the park was completely deserted. Several people had to walk to the park around 10 pm to fetch their children who had not returned home from the show but none of them reported seeing anything suspicious and all reported that the park was steeped in darkness and empty when they arrived there at 10. Due to these sightings it is widely assumed that Beverly met with foul either right after the Krause’s sighting or while she was already on Linnet avenue mere yards from her home. Others have speculated that Beverly entered the car of someone she knew or trusted on either 117th St. or on Linnet Ave. Law enforcement believes that this is the most probable scenario as no one reported hearing screams or a struggle (Badal, 2005).
Other witnesses came forward with different stories. Cab driver Robert Karmecy divulged that he picked up two customers at the edge of Halloran park that night at about 9 pm. One customer was a Polish looking man 25-30 years old. His companion was a girl who looked to be around eleven. Karmecy dropped the pair off at the bus station and went on his way. He reported the story to the police soon afterwards (Badal, 2005).
Cleveland police also interviewed Beverly’s classmates when school returned to session. The children interviewed gave a variety of stories, most involved seeing Beverly talking to people at the Showagon or getting into strange cars. Although a few classmates had small tidbits of information, such as seeing Beverly and Patsy and waving to them, no important information was gathered and most of the sightings reported by Beverly’s school mates were determined to be false. Nearly all the interviewed children recanted their stories within a few days and the school yard dragnet was exposed as a bust (Badal, 2005).
Investigation and leads
Robert and Elizabeth were devasted by the disappearance of their daughter. Press and curious onlookers swarmed the yard of the Linnet Avenue home for weeks. Elizabeth cried constantly and could not eat or sleep. Robert, who typically worked the night shift, was eyed suspiciously as neighbors reported that they didn’t really know him. Rumors swirled that he was an alcoholic, abusive, or even simply mysterious. Some papers published that Robert had multiple DUIs and speculated that maybe he did something to his daughter. However, police reports showed that Robert had no DUIs. His only run in with law enforcement was a ticket he received for doing an illegal left turn years earlier. Eventually, all four adults in the home were cleared by police in Beverly’s disappearance; they all had alibis. Patsy Swing’s parents were also cleared, as the two were watching the baseball game with neighbors.
Eventually, the Potts phone had to be disconnected as cruel prank calls plagued the home during all hours of the night. Elizabeth lamented to the papers that she did not do enough to protect Beverly. She wished again and again that she had taught Beverly to be cautious around women and became convinced that Beverly was lured away by a woman or couple- a theory which is prevalent to this day. In those days Anita ran the household and tried to helpful but the situation was just too much to bear (Badal, 2005).
At 2 or 3 pm on September 4th only ten days after Beverly’s disappearance, a factory worker was taking a break at his workplace which overlooked the Cuyahoga River when he saw a bundle about 5 feet long, float down the sluggish water way. The more he looked at the bundle the more it looked like human body wrapped in a tarp, with arms, hair, and feet sticking out of the tarp covering. The man immediately called the police. The river was dragged, divers were deployed, and witness were interviewed. Several people down river reported that they too had seen the bundle that day, September 4th. After two days of no findings it was determined that the bundle, whatever it was, had most likely floated into the vastness of Lake Erie, never to be seen again.
Three weeks after Beverly’s disappearance police asked to search each home on Linnet avenue in an attempt to find clues. At that time many homes had dirt floored garages and storage areas leading LE to speculate that Beverly may have been lured into someone’s home and subsequently buried on the property. No evidence was found. Moreover, no single household refused the search; all households complied with the search request. Meanwhile, the Potts completed a thorough inventory Beverly’s closet and things in order to narrow down what Beverly’s wearing and carrying at the time of her disappearance. This is why such a detailed description can be provided in this case.
After a week or so of futile searching for the girl, area sex offenders were interviewed. Even in the early 1950s sex offenders had to be registered and police departments kept track of their addresses. The offenders were categorized by gender and age of their victims and many sex offenders in the area were questioned. However, sometimes these predators were re-arrested and never taken off the list, meaning many of the 1,100 Cleveland offenders were actually in jail for other offenses when police came knocking. Unfortunately, nothing came of this line of inquiry. Meanwhile, wooded areas and bodies of water near the Potts’ home were scoured but no trace of Beverly was ever found.
A month or so later, on October 9th, a fisherman was fishing in the Rocky River when he caught a piece of red cloth on his hook. He untangled the fabric, put it on the shore and continued with his day. The fisherman went home that evening, but later remembered that that Beverly was last seen in a pink/red top and red underwear. With this realization he called investigators. From October 9th-11th the Rocky River, which was only 10 feet deep, was searched with boats and divers. A piece of blue cloth about 8 inches long was found as well as a clump of hair attached to a soggy substance. Both pieces were taken to be tested. The cloth was later determined to be a fabric from a bathing suit, not jeans like Beverly was wearing. No red cloth was found and the hair was dark brown not blonde like Beverly’s. Additionally, the soggy substance it was attached to was nothing more than waterlogged cardboard. By October 11th, the CPD announced that the they had no reason to believe that Beverly’s body was or had been in the Rocky River.
On November 9th, a mysterious person called Robert Potts work and demanded to know why the Potts phone number was no longer working. Then the caller made a ransom demand, but only if the Potts home number was reinstated. The phone was reconnected and several days later and man called the home and set up a money drop, promising to release Beverly in exchange for $25,000 dollars. He claimed that Beverly was very sick but he promised she was still alive. A few days later, a male detective dressed up like Elizabeth, who herself was almost 6 feet tall, prepared to do the money drop in exchange for Beverly, but the kidnapper sensed the trap and tried to flee the area. When apprehended Frank Dale Davis admitted he was an opportunist who needed cash to pay off his debts. Davis was convicted of fraud and was sentenced to five years in prison. Subsequent investigation showed he had nothing to do with Beverly’s disappearance.
One month after the bizarre ransom request, an even stranger incident occurred. In late November a man who called himself Tom, phoned Lester Swing and claimed that he had Beverly. Tom claimed that he had hit Beverly with his car in August. Thinking she was dead he put her in the car to dispose of the body, but it turned out that Beverly was simply stunned and now had a bad case of amnesia. Tom explained to Lester that he would release Beverly in downtown Cleveland, but only if Lester dressed Patsy in the same clothes as Beverly was last seen in and had her stand at the magazine counter of the May Company department store on Dec. 1st from 3-5 pm. However, Tom wanted Patsy to wear a denim skirt not a denim pants. The Swings reported the incident to the police. Lester refused to let Patsy participate in the stunt so a decoy was used and nothing happened. Tom called the Swings later and explained that he did not like the use of a decoy and set up a new time two weeks later. After a lot of convincing the Swings allowed Patsy to be part of the sting. On Dec. 15th while Pasty braved the store alone, police descended on a man lurking in the area watching the young girl. Stephen Tyukody admitted to making the phone calls to the Swings but had no explanation as to why. Tyukody was cleared of any involvement in Beverly’s case.
In late 1951, one man claimed that on August 24th, he saw a car near Halloran park with a screaming girl tied up in the back seat. The car was cruising down west 117th. Police checked out his lead by tracking down each individual with a car like the man described but nothing panned out and the lead was later determined to be false. Several clairvoyants also contacted the police but their stories likewise, were useless. As 1951 came to a close, no one had any idea what had happened to 10-year-old Beverly Potts.
Throughout the case a variety of people have been looked at as potential persons of interest. Here are some of the more prominent suspects.
William Slates: Four days after Beverly’s disappearance the papers announced that police had a suspect, a Cleveland native referred to as Bill. This Bill was William Slates, a former solider who had been dishonorably discharged in 1949 after making sexual advances to an 8-year-old girl in movie theater. Family members related that Slates had a history of dating very young teens and according to army psychologists he was in a severe need of psychotherapy treatment. In 1951 Slates, on probation for his crime, was living with his mother on 166th St. near Halloran park. In late August, Slates’ mother was on vacation and he was at the home alone. At the time he was seeing a 17-year-old telephone operator and was working odd jobs. On Sunday August 26th, Slates borrowed a friend’s car, locked up his mother’s Cleveland home, drove to Columbus, and checked into a hotel using a false identity, all for apparently no reason. Friends reported his absence to police who tracked him to Columbus via phone calls to his girlfriend. Slates could give no explanation for leaving Cleveland so abruptly. He was interviewed repeatedly and failed several polygraphs. After a week or so of being the prime suspect in the case, Slates’ girlfriend came forward and provided him with an alibi, claiming they were making out at a park at the time of Beverly’s disappearance. One of Slates’ friends also claimed he was with Slates’ that evening but a third friend said that they were altogether on a different day, not the 24th. Discrepancies aside, Slates was released from custody and was eliminated as a suspect. Modern sleuths have questioned the validity of this alibi, but Cleveland police seemed to think it valid at the time (Badal, 2005).
Speed queen: Less than a week following Beverly’s disappearance rumors swirled that a local “speed queen” and her friends were responsible for Beverly’s demise. Modern connotations aside, in the 1950s a speed queen was not a drug user, but rather a term used for girls/women who drove hot rods or sports cars. According to a couple who were friends with this “speed queen” on the night Beverly was last seen a local teenager and hot-roder Barbara Saunders, loaned her car to her boyfriend’s brother and some of his friends. That evening at around 10 pm the boys called Barbara and explained that they had to abandon the car because they had gotten into an accident on West 117th St. and the car was “hot”. When Barbara retrieved the car the next day from a wooded area, she reported that there was some blood on the bumper as well as a few strands of cloth. On the 31st of August CPD decided to conduct a dig in the area the car was abandoned to search for clues as well as graves. However, no evidence was found during the multiday search. Saunders’ car was also searched a few strands of blonde hair were found stuck in the door hinge which were collected as evidence.
Over all the investigators found the “speed queen” story to be unlikely. Not only was the whole story sensational, west 117th is a main thoroughfare in Cleveland, and many found it ludicrous that someone could hit a child on such as busy road without anyone seeing anything, especially as hundreds of fans left the Showagon and crossed that very street. The only reason investigators looked into this story was because the car and men from the story vaguely matched the description of the two young men seen talking a girl who looked like Beverly at the Showagon that evening. The hair collected from the car has since been lost and was never forensically tested (Badal, 2005).
Harvey Lee Rush was a Cleveland native who had lived a hard and fast life. He looked older than his forty-something years and had been drifting around the United States for about three years in 1955 when he was picked up in Los Angeles for public intoxication. Rush had nearly 100 arrests in his life mostly for petty crimes like public intoxication and bar fights. Rush used all the money he made as a hospital cleaner on booze. However, on this day in 1955, Rush had an extraordinary story to tell. He claimed that in July 1952, he had abducted and killed a girl in Cleveland. Rush explained that one day while he was at a circus or puppet show in Cleveland, he lured a young girl, aged about 12 away from the show with the promise of candy. He and the girl went under a nearby bridge and he promised to give her ice cream, but instead he told her to disrobe. Then the girl started to cry, Rush punched her knocking her out and she landed on some rocks which apparently killed her. Harvey described the girl as aged about 12, with shoulder length dark hair and glasses.
The next day the dried-out suspect was able to write a three-page confession and officers relayed the story to their counterparts in Cleveland. Rush’s story was full of holes and discrepancies; he couldn’t even remember the correct year. Neither agency believed that the story was genuine but they decided to not take that chance and Rush was extradited back to Ohio. Investigators thought it was suspicious that Rush’s description of the puppet show and the girl he abducted seemed to match incorrect newspaper reports rather than truth. In Beverly’s black and white photo, she looks older than 10, her hair is longer and appears dark. Additionally, one newspaper reported that there was a puppet show at the Showagon, but this was a simply misprint. Moreover, Harvey was unable to show officers where he took the girl and insisted that there was a bridge near the park that simply wasn’t there. After a few days, Rush recanted his story and explained he simply wanted a free trip back to his home town of Cleveland. Rush was eliminated as a suspect (Badal, 2005).
William Henry Redmond is another suspect often mentioned in this case. Redmond was a Ferris wheel operator who lived all across the country on account of his job, but Ohio and Pennsylvania were his usual haunts. Redmond had a history of perpetrating brutally violent sex crimes starting when he was only 13 years old. In the 1930s Redmond was convicted of sexual assaults on two separate occasions and sent to prison. In the 1940s he was accused of additional charges of a similar nature in Florida.
In 1951 Jane Marie Althoff was 8 years old and was attending a carnival with two of her siblings. Althoff disappeared at the carnival and was last seen whispering to the Ferris wheel operator, William Redmond. When police went to question Redmond the next day, he had fled the area without even picking up his paycheck. Sadly, Althoff was found strangled a few hours later, in an abandoned truck covered with Redmond’s fingerprints. With the prime suspect missing, the case grew cold.
In 1988 investigators in Pennsylvania decided to once more look for Redmond and found him living in Nebraska. They arrested the now frail old man and took him all the way back to Pennsylvania for trial. Redmond confessed and allegedly told a cell mate that he had killed three other girls. Due to some technicalities, Redmond was not tried for years. He passed away in 1992 awaiting trial.
ViCap, AFIS, and DMV records linked Redmond to certain murders around the county by comparing crimes featuring his MO to DMV records. He is a suspect in the case of Connie Smith age 10 in 1952 in Connecticut, although some agencies say he passed a polygraph regarding that case. Redmond is considered a suspect in the 1957 case of 7-year-old Maria Ridulph, and the 1955 case of 7-year-old Barbara Gaca of Detroit. Joanne Lynn, aged 11, was found shot in Lima, New York in 1949. Redmond was working at a carnival only a few miles from Joanne’s home. One blog alleges that when Redmond was arrested, underwear of pre-teen girls was found in his home (Hunter, 2017).
Redmond specifically refused to confirm or deny involvement in the case of Beverly Potts. Closer scrutiny of this suspect does not exonerate him of the crime completely, but there is no evidence Redmond was even in the state of Ohio at the time of Beverly’s disappearance and no other evidence connects him to this crime. Furthermore, Beverly was much older than Redmond’s confirmed victims, the oldest of whom was 8 years old. For some reason, online sleuths often portray William Henry Redmond as the most probable suspect despite very limited evidence and no proof that he was even in the area at the time (Badal, 2005).
Odd Occurrences and possible evidence
The auto-body tip In 1980 one retired Cleveland detective announced that he had solved the case in 1974. In the early 70s, a man called in a tip to the CPD claiming that his brother had confessed to Beverly’s murder. The brother’s auto body shop was searched and dug up but nothing of note was found. According to one detective, this suspect had a record of molesting young girls in and around Halloran park. The detective even claims that this suspect confessed to him. Despite this information, the DA refused to prosecute due to lack of evidence. Other police sources claim this story is not accurate and have only confirmed that the auto body dig was a bust. No official sources have corroborated the retired detective’s story (Badal, 2005).
Letter in carpet In 1994 a letter was discovered under the carpet in a Cleveland home. The letter was written by a woman who claimed that she witnessed her husband disposing of Beverly’s body in their furnace. When tracked down the woman admitted that in 1960 around the time she was divorcing her husband, she had written and hid the letter as revenge against her abusive ex, but the contents of the letter were fabricated by herself. The woman’s children backed up her story. According to the women’s children, their father (now dead) had a temper and was somewhat abusive, but they did not think he was capable of murder and there was no evidence he was involved in the disappearance of Beverly Potts (Badal, 2005).
Letters sent to paper A huge break in the case happened in April 2000, when a Cleveland newspaper, The Plain Dealer, received a letter that confessed to the murder of Beverly Potts. They forwarded the letter to the police. Throughout the course of the next year and a half, four letters were sent to the Plain Dealer. The letters were analyzed and determined to be all written by the same author, who was likely old and infirm. The author’s handwriting became more cramped and shakier throughout the year. The DNA analysis showed that the writer was male and the stamps he used were sold one year earlier at only two banks. Fingerprint analysis determined that the author of the letters did not leave behind any fingerprints showing that he was either very careful or very old. Fingerprint experts explained to the Cleveland Police that many people's skin gets drier when they get older and the elderly are less likely to leave behind fingerprints than other age groups. While there was trace DNA on the flap of the first envelope which indicated that the writer was male, the other envelopes were sealed with tape most likely as to not leave any DNA.
The writer added details which proved he was at least familiar with the area around Halloran park and Linnet Avenue, leading investigators to believe that he was indeed a local and probably still lived in Cleveland. But the writer also made several errors which damped investigators enthusiasm. The writer claimed that he still had a 1916 quarter that Beverly was carrying with her on the night she disappeared, an odd detail as reports claimed Beverly had left all her money at home when she left for the Showagon, but still the tip had to be thoroughly examined.
The author also alleged that he wrote a confession letter to the coroner in 1967 and asked for a plea deal, but no such letter could be found. Although the coroner from the 1960s, Sam Gerber, was dead those who worked with him denied there was any letter written to him or the office that had amounted to a confession. Gerber’s files were looked through and nothing was found. Likewise, the DA from the time was interviewed and reported that he had heard nothing of such a letter or confession in the 1960s. Furthermore, no one thought the DA or the coroner at the time would have sat on such an important information without telling anyone.
The writer left several other clues as to his identity. He claimed that he was in his 80s, making him in his thirties when he had kidnapped Beverly. He also claimed he was old and sick. His body was racked with cancer, diabetes, and arthritis and the doctor had given him only about a year to live. The old man also claimed that he was going to be buried in Riverside Cemetery, and that he had left a letter with his lawyer that was to be opened and sent to the police upon his death. He mentioned nothing about the lawyer except that he referred to her as “she.”
After a few months without correspondence, the police asked the Plain Dealer to write an article appealing to the writer of the letters. They wanted the letter author to know that due to his age and poor health, he would most likely not be sentenced to prison but rather into a secured assisted living facility if he were to come forward.
In move that surprised everyone, the letter writer wrote back on April 16th and claimed that he would turn himself in on August 24th 2001, the 50th anniversary of the disappearance of Beverly Potts. He would turn himself in at Halloran Park, but he wanted Brent Larkin, the journalist at the Plain Dealer, to be there as well. He claimed that he would come to Halloran Park to turn himself in if he was still living at that time. The penmanship of the third letter was incredibly cramped and even more illegible than the others. Handwriting experts said it was clear that the man was deteriorating in health.
On August 7th 2000, the mysterious letter writer wrote his fourth and final letter. He explained that he would no longer be able to keep his appointment at Halloran Park as he had to go into a nursing home. The writing on this letter was almost impossible to read having been scribbled with such a shaky hand. Detectives were disappointed, but went to Halloran park on the 50th anniversary just in case the man decided to turn himself in. The elderly man did not show, but investigators continued checking nursing home registries, reading obituaries, cross-checking old suspects who still lived in town. At the end of the day the letters were not able to prove anything and many investigators believe the four letters are nothing more than a hoax. Others believe that they are legitimate. Detective Wolfe of the Cold Case Department thinks it is possible that the letter writer was a retired cop or journalist because he knew so much about Beverly's disappearance, recalling details that only those obsessed with the case would care to remember. While he believes by the letter writer is most likely dead and the letters no more than a cruel prank, he's not willing to dismiss the letters entirely (Badal, 2005).
In 2015 a strange tip was called in anonymously to Cleveland crime stoppers regarding the Potts case. The tip was passed on to investigators who determined the tip was solid. Investigators are asking that this tipster call again either to the FBI, CPD, or even crime stoppers as they believe the tip to be valid and any more information the tipster could reveal could be helpful. As of the writing of this piece the tipster has not yet called back (The Charley Project).
Full list of sources in part 2
submitted by Quirky-Motor to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

2020.11.07 03:19 Odd_Doctor_139 1 Round Mock Draft

1 NYJ Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson
This should be obvious I think Sam Darnold could still become a decent quarterback but not in New York and not with Adam Gase. Unfortunately for Jets fans and Trevor Lawrence I think Gase will be back as Joe Douglas has made some interesting comments to the press lately.
2 NYG Gregory Rousseau DE Miami
This pick might be a bit of a surprise but after drafting both Andrew Thomas and Matthew Peart I don’t see them taking an offensive tackle. I don’t think there is a corner who is worth taking at 2 but Rousseau has the potential to be a terror in New York.
3 Jax Trey Lance QB North Dakota State
I think that Jacksonville has to go QB here even though I like Gardner Mineshew. I also think they fire Doug Marrone and want to pair a new quarterback with a new coach.
4 MIA Micha Parsons LB Penn State
Miami is gonna get arguably the best player in this draft and a versatile linebacker who should be able to do a lot in Brian Flores defense. He can also be the defensive leaders in Miami for years to come.
5 DAL Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama
Dallas is gonna have a couple of free agent corners this year and I think they keep Jordan Lewis for a cheaper price than what Chidobe Awuzia is gonna cost. At least this way they will have 3 talented corners in Lewis last years second round pick Trevon Diggs and Surtain.
6 ATL Justin Fields QB Ohio State
This was a hard pick to make because Atlanta has so many holes on defense but I think there new head coach is gonna be an offensive guy who wants his own quarterback not to mention Matt Ryan isn’t getting any younger or cheaper.
7 WFT Penei Sewell OT Oregan
The Football Team just missed out on Justin Fields but if I was them I would be weary about drafting another Ohio State quarterback anyway. So they are getting a rock solid tackle who can keep whoever there quarterback is upright for the next decade.
8 LAC Alex Leatherwood OL Alabama
The Chargers just missed out on a Oregon reunion between Herbert and Sewell but one thing is for sure Sam Tavii should not be the left tackle for Herbert. Also if Leatherwood doesn’t work out at tackle he is versatile enough to kick in to guard.
9 NE Kyle Trask QB Florida
This pick is a surprise but between Cam Newton Jarrett Stidham and Bryan Hoyer the Pats don’t hear a good qb. Trask is the kind of gritty tough minded player that Bill Belichek loves to coach.
10 MIN Wyatt Davis OG Ohio State
Another draft another pick the Vikings spend on the offensive line. Eventually they will find good players and Davis is one of them.
11 Cin Jaylen Mayfield OT Michigan
Just like Minnesota the Bengals line is terrible outside of Jonah Williams. If Joe Burrow is gonna be a successful quarterback it starts with staying upright.
12 Shaun Wade CB Ohio State
Shaun Wade is the latest in the long line of Buckeye corners who is gonna be successful on the NFL. I also think he has the talent to be a good outside corners I pair with Donte Jackson and a very good to elite slot corner.
13 DET Ja’marr Chase WR LSU
Mark the date something finally goes right for the Lions. With all of there receivers not named Quintez Cephus set to hit free agency Detroit gets a stud in Chase who can pair nicely with Kenny Golladay. I also think Chase might fall in the same way former teammate Justin Jefferson did last year.
14 DEN Dylan Moses LB Alabama
If there is one thing Vic Fangio knows it’s the value of a good linebacker. Also after spending almost all of last years picks on offense it’s time for John Elway to invest some youth and playmaking into the defense.
15 SF Zach Wilson QB BYU
The 9ers need a new quarterback because of Jimmy Gs injury history and inconsistency. Kyle Shannahan is gonna get a dynamic player with good accuracy and a high IQ that can improve under Shannahan.
16 MIA Travis Etienne RB Clemson
Miami needs to put some dynamic talent around Tua. Myles Gaskin could develop but Etienne is already a great back who has the potential to be able to take over a game.
17 LV Aidan Hutchinson DE Michigan
Despite having the toughest schedule the Raiders are in a great spot. Unfortunately they are also in a tough division that has two good qbs and Drew Lock. They need to improve there pass rush after reaching for Clelin Ferrel a few years ago.
18 CHI Jay Tufele IDL USC
The Bears need a QB but they can get one later. They also need some youth on defense as Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks aren’t gonna be around forever. With Tufele he could learn from Hicks then take over in a year or two.
19 PHI Devonta Smith WR Alabama
The Eagles miss out on Dylan Moses by 5 picks but even if he was there I’m not sure he would be the pick anyway. So with Philly way over the cap Desean Jackson could be a cap casualty JJAW hasn’t panned out and it’s to early to tell if Jalean Reagor is gonna pan out. Not to mention they have been trying to trade Alshon Jefferey sine forever it seems like. So here is a dynamic talent that can be a number 1 receiver from day 1.
20 CLE Tyson Campbell CB Georgia
It seems as though things are finally looking up for the Browns. But there defense can still be improved and with no pass rushers worth taking the go to Campbell who I think is gonna be a riser as the draft nears.
21 JAX Dillon Radunz OT North Dakota State
The Jags need to improve at the tackle spot due to a lack of talent and Cam Robinson is a free agent and as we’ve seen the quickest way to ruin a qb is to not protect him.
22 Indy Quincy Roche DE Miami
This one one of the hardest picks I had to make as Indy has a great roster with not a lot of holes and a surprisingly amount of depth. Now every other mock draft I’ve seen has a qb in this spot but there isn’t one worth taking. So here is a replacement/understudy for Justin Houston who is not as good as he once was.
23 ARI Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama
Another stud receiver to the Cards is sure to make both Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury very happy. If this pick happens the Cards offense might be unstoppable.
24 BAL Rondale Moore WR Purdue
Like the previous pick a stud receiver going to a great offense just makes sense. Even though Morre has a bit of an injury history the potential outweighs the risk in my opinion.
25 GB Kyle Pitts TE Florida
I considered a receiver here but Green Bay’s front office hates Aaron Rodgers for some reason. So here is a tight end who can be a reliable talent for Rodgers and eventually Jordan Love.
26 TEN Trey Smith IOL Tennessee
The Titans grab a local product who can help open holes for Derrick Henry. He might be able to play a little tackle to if Isaiah Wilson doesn’t stop being a dunce in his everyday life.
27 NO Asante Samuel Jr CB Florida State
The Saints are way over the cap and might have to make some tough roster cuts to get under it. Here they take a talented corner to pair with Marshon Lattimore.
28 BUF Pat Freiermuth TE Penn State
The Bills have a chance to be a great team for a long time. They have an elite defense a solid offense and a great head coach. They also play in a division that is up for grabs. So here is an offensive piece to take advantage of the speed that Diggs And John Brown have.
29 Christian Barmore IDL Alabama
This was another tough pick as this is a team playing at a high level in offense and defense. So here is a young d linemen for them to develop because between Suh and William Gholston they could use some depth and youth.
30 KC Creed Humphrey IOL Oklahoma
This pick is about protecting the 100 million dollar man. Humphrey is a plug and play guard who can step in for the injured Kelchi Osemele.
31 NYJ Sam Cosmi OT Texas
The Jets have a great tackle in Meckhi Becton. Here is a player to play right tackle where George Fant and Chuma Edoga haven’t inspired much confidence.
32 PIT Liam Eichenberg OT Notre Dame
This pick came down to 3 players who all fill needs. I was stuck between Eichenberg, Najee Harris, or Mac Jones. Ultimately I went with Eichenberg who I admit is a reach but with Villanueva set to hit free agency and a lot of other Steelers needed to be resigned they go tackle.
submitted by Odd_Doctor_139 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

2020.11.06 09:14 MoozeRiver What brands roll well?

I know a lot of you are collectors with the intent of presenting nice looking cars on a shelf, but I know I’m not the only one who races them. It can be hard to find info about how well different brands perform so here's some help.
Thought I’d present to you my findings from the last 30+ years that me and my brother have been doing this (yes, we both have forgiving wifes and enthustiastic children). If you guys have any thoughts on other brands, feel free to share. It’s worth keeping in mind that some cars will perform better on different surfaces. The difference between Hot Wheels and Majorette tracks can be enormous for certain brands.
This list is for fresh out of the pack cars. I regularly buy cars from the 80’s and 90’s (and sometimes 70’s) unopened just to explore how they perform when new.
Tier 1 (only one brand)
Hot Wheels
Though the quality is getting worse (especially in late 2010's regular singles) Hot Wheels is without a doubt the best brand if you're looking for winners. Look for the singles dated 2003-2009 with a metal base for the result. Have had very good results with 80's and early 90's too, but they are getting a little expensive when the result isn’t always great. If you want to buy great Hot Wheels on budget with low risk, buy the 5-packs made in Indonesia. Hot Wheels are
Tier 2
Don’t trick yourself thinking that new Matchbox cars from the last 25 years are going to be the solution to your friends Hot Wheels team. Since Mattel bought Matchbox they have gradually become worse in both build quality and rolling ability. I have a 62 Corvette from 1994 that does really well but other than that I’ve yet to find a new Matchbox to compete in the top since the mid 80’s. That’s why buying Matchbox gets expensive. If you want a new Matchbox from the 70’s or 80’s you’re going to have to pay up. A new 70’s Matchbox will however outperform most 2010’s Hot Wheels. Also, you can find used 40 year old Matchbox that still perform admirably, amazing build quality by Lesney!
Johnny Lightning
I’m still exploring this brand. The sheer amount of rubber wheels in JL makes them hard to evaluate. Generally, look for the 90’s Wacky Winners segment. Exposed axel that will not last for as long as a Hot Wheels car but they can roll really well. If you guys know of JL from the last 20 years that perform well at high speeds, I’d love to hear it because I’ve spent way more than I wanted to on “garbage” by now.
So here’s an unknown brand to many. Zuru is a new Chinese brand that looks great and feels really really terrible fresh out of the pack. Don’t be fooled, they are amazing rollers. Especially first generation Zurus (2018), they can beat any same year Hot Wheels. Problem is they only last about 50 times rolling, then they start losing speed/distance. Buy these for short term success!
Bought at Tesco in the UK. Same non-quality feel as Zuru, without the nice look. Have yet to try them enough to know about their future ability but these have been among the best cars I’ve tried in 2020. You can probably find them online at eBay or Amazon if you’re not in the UK (which I’m not).
Tier 3
(we’re now getting to the “wont win but still rolls well”-segment)
Look for 70-80’s Corgi and Corgi Juniors. Not as expensive out of the pack as old Hot Wheels and Matchbox. Roll well, but generally has a plastic base (there are exceptions) so can’t gain as much speed
Make sure you get the French ones, the Thailand ones from the 90’s are generally worse. Perform well on Majorette tracks but keep track of their width, many Majorette cars will not even fit on a Hot Wheels track or similar.
Racing Champions
This can be a crapshoot! Obviously stay away from the ones with rubber wheels, but the ones with plastic wheels are often very low quality. I've only ever had success with the themed 5-packs.
Nerf has actual toy cars, and they are not bad at rolling by any means. They do incredibly well on Majorette tracks and tracks with turns where the track is not fastened to the ground because their low weight tends to keep the track more stable at high speeds.
If you can afford it, Lintoy is a fairly unknown 70-80’s brand that is mostly known for making airplanes. They also made a few cars but they are REALLY expensive if you want one in mint condition and I still can’t promise they’ll be as good as the two I have.
Tomica Premium
Make sure you buy the Premium ones, otherwise you’re wasting your money if your plan is to race them. Obviously they look good, but they also roll well. You will NEVER beat Hot Wheels with a Tomica but if you want to have a competition with cars from this decade without Hot Wheels this is a not a bad move.
Tier 4
(brands that will get your friends attention but you will never be top10 with any of these)
Regular Tomica are still fun to race with, but they are not as good as the Premium range, and definitely no Hot Wheels.
Ohio brand that tried to compete with Hot Wheels in the 80’s. Look for the “Fast 111’s” line. “Classic” lightweight feeling but still a fun addition.
Dickie Toys
German brand with the focus on small children. Cars still role pretty well!
Classic German brand with cars are almost always too big for Hot Wheels tracks. Get the old cars, the new ones are terrible.
Greek brand from the 70-80’s that role on par with Siku and Kenner. Heavy high quality build but maybe not always so fun to look at.
Tier 5
There are lots of other brands that you may find scattered over the internet and at second hand stores. These will not outperform anyone but can be nice if you want to add more brands to your collection.
Adventure Force
Fast Lane
MC Toy
Motorsports Authentics
RMZ City
Zee Toys/Zylmex
There are also many collector brands (Autoworld, Jada Toys etc.) out there but they tend to be absolutely awful when racing them. If you know of any exceptions, let me know!
Anyway, this is not a complete list of brands but more of a list of all the brands I've tried over the last 30-35 years. If you don't agree with me, or have other experiences, feel free to share. Reddit tends to show up well in Google searches so maybe we will help others looking for the same thing.
submitted by MoozeRiver to HotWheels [link] [comments]

2020.10.31 20:37 FightingForSarah US naval nuclear refuelings by ship/reactor type

I have slogged my way through all of the 37+2 Sturgeon attack submarines (S5W reactors), but since the records are worse than usual I don’t have as definitive a picture as some of the other types of ships. However, I can now count 463 reactor loads of nuclear fuel taken critical by the naval reactors program (including land based prototypes). With 542 fuel loads take critical by Jul 2016 plus seven new submarines built and four Ohio SSBN refuelings completed since Jul 2016, this means that 553 US naval fuel loads have been taken critical to date. The remaining 91 fuel loads (16% of the total) are not mentioned anywhere publicly accessible, and I am relying on one off-handed mention in a random US navy fan site for an uncomfortable number of the refuelings that I have information on.
My research method was to go through all the US nuclear submarines and search for (ie) “USS Nautilus (SSN-571) refuel”, then open new tabs with any of the links that looked reasonable. Wikipedia articles sometimes have partial refueling information that matches other sources most of the time, and this site (https://www.navysite.de/submarine.htm with a similar page of ballistic missile submarines) occasionally has refueling information either in the submarine histories or more often in notes left by former crewmembers (ie “I was aboard from 1980 to 1984 and we did a refueling overhaul and two patrols” or something like that). As can probably be imagined, this was an excruciating slow and imprecise process, but the overall picture is roughly accurate. Obviously I am not going to bother citing sources, if you have several tens of hours to burn and access to a spreadsheet program (I use LibreOffic Calc, which is free) you can figure out where I got my information from.
So, starting with ships, the Enterprise (CVN-65, 8xA2W) went through 4 sets of nuclear fuel or 32 individual reactor loads. As far as I can tell, the A2W was about the same size as early submarine reactors – the reason to use 8 reactors was that they hadn’t worked out how to build bigger naval reactors. The Nimitzs (CVN-68 through 77, 2xA4W) are intended to last 50 years on 2 loads of nuclear fuel with much bigger reactors, although obviously if we the people decided some could be scrapped without refueling and/or reaching 50 years. The Ford and any similar ships are intended to be similar. On the cruiser side, the Long Beach (CGN-9, 2xC1W) would have had reactors of similar size to the Enterprise, and went through anywhere between 3 and 5+ sets of nuclear fuel. I am particularly interested in this ship, the reactor(s) of which were last critical on 02 Jul 1994 but are still sitting in Bremerton 26 years later, but the information is spotty. The Bainbridge (CGN-25, 2xD2G) had larger reactors, went through 4 sets/8 loads of nuclear fuel, and was completely dismantled and buried four years after last criticality. The Truxtun (CGN-35) was identical except for burning 3 sets of nuclear fuel, while the California (CGN-36) went through 2 sets of nuclear fuel and was completely disposed of two years after last criticality. CGN-37 was the last of the nuclear cruisers to be refueled, burning 2 fuel sets, but took twelve years to be disposed of. The four Virginias (CGN-38 to 42, 2xD2G reactors each) went through two loads of fuel each, and were disposed of between 1.5 and 8 years after last criticality. The NS Savannah has a rather interesting history and at one point was reported to have suffered a nuclear meltdown, but officially only had the nuclear fuel configuration changed once, with four fuel assemblies replaced and the rest redistributed to even out remaining reactivity between the highly active areas close to the middle of the reactor and lower activity areas on the periphery. The Savannah’s reactor was last critical in 1970, and remains intact (although defueled) 50 years later, with removal and burial expected soonish. [The NS Savannah is not included in the numerical summary at the beginning of this post.]
On the submersible side, the NR-1 was refueled at least once, was last critical on 21 Nov 2008, and may have been scrapped and buried by mid-2019 as it is not visible on the latest satellite images. On the submarine side, there are too many for me to go into as much detail, but disposal being completed in 2 years is about the minimum. At about ten years after last criticality without scrapping I start to have concerns about the radiation environment aboard, with longer delays corresponding to increased concern.
SSN-571/S2W: 4 fuel loads, museum ship in Groton, Connecticut
SSN-575: 1 fuel load with S2G, 3 with S2Wa, 4 fuel loads total
Skates (SSN-578 to 584), Halibut (SSGN-587): S3W reactors, up to five sets of fuel, Halibut records sketchy due to use in tapping the USSR’s undersea telephone cables etc
Skipjacks (SSN-585, 588 through 592): S5W reactors, 2-3 fuel loads each
Triton (SSRN-586, 2xS4G reactors): a nuclear powered submarine radar picket that was required to spend all of the radar operational time on the surface. I have no idea how this was expected to make sense aside from lingering mental health issues in those who witnessed the violence of WWII. 2 fuel sets, third set of fuel fabricated but was not installed
Threshers (SSN-593 to 596, 603 to 607, 612 to 615, 621): S5W reactors, Thresher sank before refueling, rest 2-3 fuel loads each
Tullibee (SSN-597, S2C reactor): 4 fuel loads, experimental with smaller reactor and steam turbine electric drive instead of the usual steam turbine/mechanical reduction gearing
George Washingtons (SSBN-598 to 602): S5W reactors, 3-4 fuel loads. At least the first ship was completed as a Skipjack attack submarine, then cut in half at the reactor compartment forward bulkhead to allow the insertion of a missile compartment
Ethan Allens (SSBN-608 to 611, 618): S5W reactors, uniformly 3 fuel loads for those ships that have refueling information available. The missile compartment on these and later SSBNs was the same or very similar to the George Washingtons, with improvements in machinery, missiles, radiated noise, sonar, and weapons from late 1959 (SSBN-598) through 1967 (SSBN-659). The Ohios (SSBN-726 +17 more, 1981 to 1997) were almost completely new although based on the technology of the earlier SSBNs, experimental submarines, shore based reactor testing, etc
Lafayettes (SSBN-616, 617, 619, 620, 622 to 626): S5W reactors, 2-4 fuel loads each. I have no idea how 618 ended up as an Ethan Allen
James Madisons (SSBN-627 to 636, thank you naval planning department): S5W reactors, 2-3 fuel loads each
Sturgeons (SSN-637 to 639, 646 to 653, 660 to 670, 672 to 684, 686, 687 in several hull lengths not corresponding to the blocks of hull numbers): S5W reactors, information incomplete but 2-3 fuel loads per submarine expected. As might be imagined with multiple types of attack/ballistic missile submarine sharing essentially the same machinery, speed was inversely proportionally to volume/hydrodynamics and mass. The Los Angeles’ had D2G derived and larger S6G reactors to push the ships through the water faster at a cost of burning more uranium
Benjamin Franklins (SSBN-640 to 645, 654 to 659): S5W reactors, 2-3 fuel loads each. First(?) US SSBN to incorporate the mounting of propulsion machinery on platforms isolated from the main hull by vibration dampeners to reduce radiated machinery noise.
Narwhal (SSN-671, Sturgeon-derived, S5G reactor): 3 fuel loads, first submarine reactor to have the ability to run on convective circulation at low to middle power settings instead of noisy electric pumps. Also omitted reduction gearing with a large diameter steam turbine. These were later incorporated into the Ohios, and convective circulation on the Seawolfs and Virginias. Convective circulation = steam generator needs to be above reactor pressure vessel, increasing plumbing and packaging complexity
Lipscomb (SSN-685, Sturgeon-derived): S5W reactor, not refueled. Second US submarine with steam turbine electric drive – intended to be quieter than normal Sturgeons, electrical generators/switchgeamotors unreliable.
Los Angeles’ (SSN-688 to 725, 750 to 773): S6G reactors. Here it should be noted that there were several blocks of Los Angeles attack submarines. The first block, 688 to 718, required refueling (although some were taken out of service and dismantled/buried instead). The second block (719 to 725, 750 to 773) did not, and additionally had vertical launch cells for 12 tomahawk land attack cruise missiles. At some point the bow planes were moved from the sail to the actual bow, with the sail strengthened, to allow surfacing through ice, and there were also other upgrades etc.
Ohio (SSBN-726 to 743): S8G reactors, 2 fuel loads each.
744 to 749: military planners tend to get greedy…
Seawolfs (SSN-21 to 23 (yo, wtf?)): S6W reactors, none yet refueled, very large/fast/sneaky/expensive/etc, 29 planned before common sense won out
Virginias (SSN-774 to 825?, 838? to ?): S9G reactors, fuel life of 33 years on one load expected. 7+ different blocks planned, early ships have 12 vertical tomahawk tubes in the bow, then two large tubes with 7 tomahawks each (14 total), then (planned) an additional four large tubes in a new hull section (14 tomahawks + 28 more)
Columbias (SSBN-826 to 837): S1B reactors, fuel life of 40 years on one load expected
Due to the erratic numbering schemes and difficulty in finding information, this is quite a nasty dataset to work with, and I am finding it difficult to make myself look up the last few tens of Sturgeons. All of the ships mentioned are steel tubes with people and torpedoes in the front, possibly missiles in the middle, and propulsion machinery in the back. The pressure hulls are about 8 cm thick and are subjected to both static hydrostatic forces when operating at a stable depth and rapidly dynamic forces when changing depth. The latest US submarines all have their ballast tanks located forward and aft of the pressure vessel, sonars in front of the pressure vessel or on the flanks, land attack missiles forward, and ballistic missile tubes physically inside but isolated from the pressure vessel in the submarine midsection. The pressure of the water outside means that sewage, trash, torpedo engine exhaust gases, etc must be actively pumped overboard. See saturation diving, the bends/decompression sickness/barotrauma, and the construction of deep submergence vehicles for additional context.
US submariners apparently operate on 18 hour days while underway and consequently suffer from severe sleep deprivation in addition to a crippling workload. There is also not enough volume inside the pressure vessel for everyone to have their own bunk (hot-bunking), the life support systems are developed and built by the lowest bidder (somehow resulting in equipment that is both extremely expensive and does not work), and they must live in close proximity to an operating nuclear reactor, torpedoes with explosive warheads fueled by unpleasant substances (Otto II monofuel), quite a bit of machinery, a diesel emergency generator, a large backup battery in case of unexpected reactor shutdown, and possibly up to 24 solid-fueled rockets carrying nuclear warheads intended to kill millions of Russian civilians etc. As a result, submariner sailors tend to be sadistic fucks, and the work environment onboard is apparently hostile, toxic, stressful, and messed up even by military standards (which is saying something!). This is even before adding in the possibility of the submarine being used to launch cruise missile strikes at some random middle eastern country or carry an assassination squad into shallow waters to kill someone or a group of someones onshore and then mutilate/urinate on/etc the corpses afterwards. The “silent service” also appears to be obsessed with spamming “ss” everywhere, a tradition that predates and probably inspired the ss of WWII mass execution, genocide, rape, and general atrocities fame. I am quite comfortable with reducing “their” funding to enable space exploration.
submitted by FightingForSarah to SpaceXFactCheck [link] [comments]

2020.10.29 01:44 Draconius0013 (2134) Seeking feedback on prologue to Appalachian Trail thru-hiker memoir

I met my wife while thru-hiking the AT and now I would like to publish our adventure. I'm nearing the end of the writing and have worked on this prologue a bit more than the other sections; now I'm hoping to get feedback from a few more people. Any thoughts would be very much appreciated.
I look about this small patch of woods in mid-Ohio, and all I can think about is how it pales next to the seemingly endless wilderness I spent so many weeks traversing last year. The gentle hills with their small groves of oak and maple, pretty though they are, only make me long for the mountains once again. It was the journey of a lifetime, a grueling ordeal for mind and body alike, and I wish now that it had never ended.
A year ago I finished hiking the Appalachian Trail, a tremendously challenging endeavor, and I was forever changed. My world today is quite different than it was – enduring life in a global pandemic, separated from my partner by visa and border restrictions, facing political unrest that tested the very foundations of democracy. It makes me wish I were back on that trail; all I want to do is get away from everything and hike.
The complete Appalachian Trail is not a journey one makes casually: walking the whole thing took me more than 4 months. When I triumphantly reached the end, the summit of Mount Katahdin in Maine – a mountain I’d dreamed about – I had sauntered 2192 miles and climbed a total elevation gain equivalent to summiting Mount Everest sixteen times. I stood on that peak with my wife-to-be, “Chilly Bin”, who I had met on day two of the trail and with whom I had spent nearly every moment over the previous 142 days. It was the achievement of a lifetime, and at the same time it was really little more than another mountain on a trail full of them. I realized in a burst of emotional technicolor the truth behind the age-old wisdom that the journey is more important than its destination.
After a year of thinking about the Appalachian Trail and its critical place in my life, I still have trouble coming to terms with the full depth and breadth of the experience. The outcomes of the adventure continue to ripple through every aspect of my life. I see daily the effects of my time spent as “Raiden”, the AT thru-hiker (someone who hikes the entire trail). The hike itself was a fantastic adventure; often fun but increasingly difficult as the journey grew longer. Chilly, as I took to calling her, would confirm that I was ready to be off the trail before it was even over while she could have gone on hiking. I think I understand that now. This was her third thru-hike, while I was just starting to digest my first. Standing in this flat Ohio landscape now, I would give almost anything to be back on the trail with her.
That being said, what strikes me more and more as my time post-trail grows is not only how much I miss the trail, and more importantly the lifestyle of a thru-hiker, but how much my view of the world has changed having completed the thru-hike.
At its core, a thru-hike acts to destroy preconceived notions: who we are, what we want, our goals, plans, and beliefs about ourselves and about the world we live in. A thru-hike has the ability to change everything. Even now, months after the AT, I continue to gain clarity on the meaning of my thru-hike. It was nothing like I could have expected and yet everything it was promised to be. People often ask if the purpose of a thru-hike is to ‘find yourself’ or to have ‘a great time’ or some other anodyne Hallmark-card version of the truth. Maybe for some this is an adequate description, but I tend to think in more brutal terms about what the AT can do to a person.
Long-distance hiking of this nature has a way of wearing down the practiced persona of our cultural being, washing away the trappings of the modern world, and baring our true self for all to see. There isn't much choice in the matter; so much energy is spent on staying alive and meeting daily distance goals that few have any energy left to waste lying or acting in any way contrary to their nature. We all eventually reach a state of personal equilibrium.
This has the secondary benefit of increasing the speed at which relationships are both formed and destroyed. Relationship time, a form of temporal relativity that I’m making up on the spot, flows at lightspeed when the distractions of polite society are supplanted by weeklong hiker filth, poor nutrition, and worse weather. Did I mention mosquito swarms dense as fog on a fresh morning? Oh, and I had the added bonus of constant low-level sleep deprivation, which is what happens when you put a light sleeper such as myself on an inflatable mat that sounds like kids wrapped in aluminum foil jumping around in a pit of balloons. Enduring this 24/7 is the quickest way to understand that acceptance is a better path to finding peace than fighting the inevitable. Going through this with someone else is truly a test unlike any other; and in terms of intimate relationships, no one has the patience for dating etiquette.
When I started the trail I had concrete plans: I would walk alone, meet people in the evening, and balance solitude and socialization while focusing primarily on the meditative experience that might come from walking long distances. I had recently gotten out of a relationship and told myself firmly that I would avoid entering another one for at least a little while. That illusion lasted exactly one day on the trail. I couldn’t be happier to have been so wrong.
This was only the first of many preconceived notions or outright misconceptions I would encounter on the trail, both in my own mind and in the mythos surrounding the AT. A major goal of this book is to describe the AT in terms of its ability to push us past our misconceptions about ourselves, about hiking, and about the AT itself. I want to help anyone who reads this to know what to expect about the trail, understand what it is and what it isn’t, and maybe help a few prospective thru-hikers pack fewer fears. I also hope to provide a better understanding to those who support, and put up with, thru-hikers: the families, friends, trail angels, and dreamers who think about the trail and the people who hike it.
The other major goal of this book is to lend support to the oft-heard AT saying ‘the trail provides’. To do this, I will tell the story of my thru-hike. My AT thru-hike changed my life, but not in any way that I could have expected.
First, the trail provided me with time. This part is obvious. All you really have to do each day is walk; it’s pretty simple on the face of it. However, having spent my whole life in education, and finishing my PhD in Neuroscience just prior to starting my hike, I was constantly under pressure to stay focused and had experienced little time to think so broadly. Getting away from that and simplifying my life gave me the time to see a better path forward, one that I believe will save me a decade in career development.
Second, the trail provided me with my best friend and partner. I tell our story for her – it’s a love letter of sorts; but I hope that you, the reader, will take something from it as well. I had approached my thru-hike as a spiritual endeavor and a challenge, like many who set foot on the AT. My exact approach to this changed almost immediately, but it turns out that letting the trail take you where it will is exactly the type of spiritual experience one should be expecting from such an endeavor. Only a fool would attempt to fight personal growth of this magnitude.
Third, the trail did actually help me achieve a form of meditative experience which I thought I might lose when I began hiking with a partner full time. Although my walking meditation only lasted a few days, I eventually found a similar peace and simplicity through the pursuit of minimalism. More generally called ultralight backpacking, an approach which stresses counting grams first and foremost, I took a more nuanced approach, focusing instead on the resulting mental state that comes from decluttering one’s life. Well, that and removing all the extra junk in my pack that kept poking me in the back. This extreme minimalism and simplicity, which merits a discussion of its own, has produced benefits not only in my hiking but in all other aspects of my life as well.
So many books about thru-hiking involve someone trying to escape something – a job, depression, or a feeling of being lost in the world for example. This gives the impression that few actually do it as a positive challenge; however, this misrepresents the truth in my estimation. To this point, David Miller (AWOL) said in his famous book, “Nothing is wrong with my life. My family is outstanding. I have what most people would consider to be a decent job. I’m not unhappy, and I’m not hiking to escape from anything. My life is precariously normal.” This last line hits the nail on the head: thru-hiking the AT is one of the least normal things many people will ever experience, and is perhaps the best way to break from our old habits and from modern society.
My own story is not so different. I have always been driven by my ambitions, seeking the greatest challenges I could find. This motivation was as much a factor in choosing to become a neuroscientist as it was to thru-hike the Appalachian Trail; in fact, both stemmed from childhood dreams (which I detail later). The possibility of NOW (read: spring 2019) being the right time fell into my lap like a gift from the heavens. As I neared the completion of my PhD, I gave it everything I had in order to finish in February, thus allowing me time to reach Springer Mountain, the Southern Terminus, by April. I never had a single doubt that I could finish the trail, barring some unforeseen and critical injury. Nothing short of a broken leg would stop me from finishing, no matter the challenges ahead.
I share with you my near over-confidence and ability to achieve other difficult goals as a means of providing contrast. Although I started the trail chasing an ambition as old as I can remember, I was humbled by the unrelenting physical and mental stress that is long-distance hiking. You see, this story is primarily one of humility and love in the face of difficulty. It is about living the simple life and wearing your true colors every day whether you want to or not, and being part of a community of people who are willingly putting themselves through the same beautiful yet painful experience. Together, these things build a sense of community that almost all successful thru-hikers return to in some shape or form; hoping to give back, or to find further support in their future endeavors.
This story is also about the adventure of a lifetime, and getting to share it with my best friend, whom I met against all expectations, while out in the woods covered in dirt. It concerns meditations on minimalism and other topics that come up while walking through the mountains. It is the account of a scientist tramping across our country with everything one could ever need strapped on his back, and nothing to do but survive and enjoy nature. It's about the ups and downs, and everything in between.
As it turned out I was tremendously lucky in almost every conceivable way. Not only did my own timing work out perfectly, but so did Chilly's, such that we would begin on the same day and, by chance, hike at a similar pace. In addition, the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic early the following year may result in permanent changes to our social world as a whole, and to the trail experience and the hiker community in particular. I very much hope that I’m wrong about this, but our story may serve as an account of the thru-hiking experience during the last year before it was forever changed.
I aim to provide a real-life account of the beauty and difficulty of thru-hiking, of finding love while doing something you both enjoy, all coupled with just a little philosophy and insight from a summer living the simple life. I hope you are able to learn something from my experience or, at the very least, perhaps you can imagine hiking along with Chilly and me on our journey to Mount Katahdin.
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2020.10.26 20:17 mr_tyler_durden Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update October 26, 2020

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update October 26, 2020
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Daily Update Team
Check your registration status, ballot status, or how to vote here!
Note: Thank you to the people who have given awards to these posts but I do want to say: Please don’t spend money to give these posts an award or if you want to give then donate it here instead. These people need your help more than I need awards. I guess if you are just spending reddit coins that you already have then that’s fine but don’t spend new money, donate it instead. Thank you all!
Watch here:
Full Notes
(continued in stickied comment)
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2020.10.26 18:43 AmericanNewt8 Boned: Problems (but not too many) in the US Air [and Space] Force!

No. You don't frighten me, Mollari. If you try to go up against our forces, you'll lose.
Yes, your ships are very impressive in the air, or in space--but at this moment, they are on the ground.
Right--they're on the ground. But they can sense an approaching ship from miles away. So what are you going to do, Mollari, blow up the island?
Actually--now that you mention it--[pulls detonator from pocket]
[presses detonator]
Babylon 5, explaining the vulnerability of aircraft to ground attack in typical hammy fashion
Hello, and welcome to another episode of "AmericanNewt8 explains the global military situation at present in a convenient, possibly easy-to-read guide". Maybe I should make a YouTube channel or something. All the cool kids [and a lot of idiots who know nothing about military equipment] are doing it. Anyway, today we have the US Air [and, for the moment, Space Force--they haven't fully separated yet], and, surprisingly for once, a somewhat more positive message. I'm sorry this one took so long; I've been busy for the past month or so, but I figured I should get this one out I already had 80% done before talking about Turkey and the war in the Caucuses, which are likely to be shorter, more current, and arrive sometime in the next week if all goes as planned.

Current Effortposts In My Series:
  1. What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
  2. We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
  3. "You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
  4. Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
  5. Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
  6. Boned: Problems (but not too many) in the US Air [and Space!] Force
  7. Erdogan Sallies Forth [inserted largely on account of the recent breakout of a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan]
  8. Begun, the Drone Wars Have: Why You Should Pay Attention To This "Tiny" War
  9. First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
  10. --Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
  11. --Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
  12. --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
  13. --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
  14. Conclusion?

1. Our Pride And Joy

America's Navy may be its key instrument of power projection abroad and in some ways the most important service branch, but the one that is by far the greatest beneficiary of American skill, the apex of our capabilities, is without a doubt the US Space Force. From Day 1 the US has had a commanding lead in the field. Mind you, that's not saying that nobody's ever challenged or exceeded the US in limited areas for limited periods of time--the early 1950s were about the last time that happened though [aside for commercial launch vehicles from around 1980-2010]. In the modern era, it is very rare that buying something other than an American-made aircraft or rocket makes any sort of economic or strategic sense [political is of course a different matter entirely]. The US Air Force has generally benefited from high, consistent levels of investment and has had relatively light burdens placed on it operationally [though in recent years post 9/11 this has changed to an extent], and it has developed into one of the best-trained and most doctrinally sophisticated forces in the world. More on that later. Anyway, the Air Force is probably the best-loved branch politically [Marines might be more respected but they get budgetary scraps], at least of the military as a whole, and it ends up with more funding, smarter people, and a much better QOL as a result. In fact Air Force personnel are usually treated to quite a bit of envy and ribbing about how much better their conditions are than their Army, Marine, or Navy counterparts.

2. Aging Equipment [again!]

Guess what? The same problem that seems to afflict most of the US military [and, for that matter, most European, Latin American, and non-East Asian militaries] is aging equipment from the Cold War finally wearing out. In the Air Force, this takes a number of different forms. Often, it's a case of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it", but even then airframes do wear out eventually and need replacement and a lot of them are getting to that point.
Logistics, Support, That Kind of Thing
One of the least glamorous parts of the Air Force, logistical and support capabilities are rapidly aging. The primary airframe the Air Force uses for these is the.. wait for it... Dash 80, as the C-135 whose commercial variant is better known as the Boeing 707. It was a very impressive aircraft, but it was designed in the 1950s. Even though we've reengined the C-135 with more modern engines, and done some serious overhauls, they're getting pretty long in the tooth. Most notably we have the 398 KC-135 Stratotankers which make up the bulk of the US midair refueling fleet, which are joined by 31 E-3 Sentry AWACs, a number of specialized RC-135 derivatives doing everything from SIGINT to hunting for nuclear weapons and 17 E-8 Joint STARS. While these were produced up until the early 1990s, the airframes are aging and they need replacements, and the sheer quantity of aircraft is likely to cause trouble. There are also other aircraft that have to be replaced in the mid-term [by the early 2040s] like the C-5 Galaxy and the KC-10 Extender, but these are somewhat less of an immediate concern. There are some C-130 Hercules replacements also needed but those are largely being done with newer versions of the same aircraft.
The B-1 Lancer is first on the chopping block, due to high maintenance costs and time [it generally takes 120 hours of maintenance for an hour of flight time]. That represents 60 bombers, on paper anyway, and a good chunk of the USAF's supersonic strike capability. However, cutting it should free up resources for new hardware, and in fact new USAF budget proposals suggest rapidly retiring the B-1. The B-2 Spirit is also on the chopping block due to high price and high maintenance demands, but it can't really be replaced until the B-21 Raider shows up. There is also a need to find a replacement for the B-52, but nobody is really sure what that looks like and it's much less urgent--the B-52 will soldier on for the indefinite future and may well hit a full century in operational service. Even if one runs into the "airplane of Thesus" the fact that you could well have fourth or fifth generation B-52 pilots flying on 90-year-old aircraft is, to be honest, kind of neat.
The F-15 and F-16 originally took flight in the 1970s and are still seeing interest today, though the modern F-15 and F-16 are very different beasts from their originals. However, the overall fleet is starting to age--primarily the F-15C fleet operated by the US Air National Guard which does air policing in the US. This is why the Guard is actually first in line for new F-15EX aircraft and has even received brand new F-35s [that, and the fact that the Air National Guard is actually pretty integrated with the Air Force]. F-16s are also starting to wear out; the USAF still operates over a thousand of the type. They are set to primarily be replaced with the F-35, though, with around 1500 aircraft on order. They will also replace the A-10 [along with drones, I suppose], and I'll take a moment to say that the A-10 is heavily overrated, there's a reason the USAF wants to dump it, and it's notorious for friendly fire incidents. Its job would be better done by drones or even aircraft like the Super Tucano.
These are, guess what, also wearing out. The USAF currently operates over 500 T-38 Talon trainers, but it already has a replacement lined up for this aircraft which was first flown in 1959. It just adds to the list of things that need replacing.
Also should mention these, I suppose. The US is currently operating the Minuteman-III) as its sole ground-based nuclear deterrent/ICBM, and these 1970s-era missiles have survived their replacement, the LGM-118 Peacekeeper. They have to be replaced as well, and the USAF actually recently awarded a contract to do so to Northrop Grumman [though there are issues with that mentioned below].
One side-effect of all this is that the Air Force has increasingly high demands for maintenance which are simply not met, which combined with a shortage of maintainers [partially due to good outside pay but mostly because anecdotal reports suggest life as an Air Force maintainer is terrible] means that the Air Force has a poor readiness rate, especially because a lot of airframes aren't in good condition to begin with, having been worn out by decades of use.

3. Procurement Woes... fixed?

So, the Air Force has had a pretty troubled history with procurement in recent years. By far the most infamous one is the F-35. Well, yes, the F-35 was a procurement disaster. Another Redditor has done a great service by writing up the account Ash Carter [Secretary of Defense under Obama] gave of the program. It's long [full version here] and probably doesn't give a full account as it is Carter's memoir--but I'll just pick out one of the most significant parts of it:
At one point of the meeting, after we'd made it abundantly clear that the grossly inflated price for the JSF jets was unacceptable, CEO Bob Stevens casually said to me, "Well, if you tell me how much money you have, I'll tell you how many planes you can buy."
I was taken aback. Rather than negotiating a fair price with us, Stevens was behaving as if his company were entitled to all the money the taxpayers could afford. And although he obviously had a per-plane price in mind, he didn't care to divulge it openly, nor would he agree to a fixed-price contract holding him to it. I found this cavalier attitude offensive. With deeper disrepute, the JSF program would go down the political drain, and we wouldn't be able to buy any of these needed aircraft.
With all this in mind, I let his question hang in the air unanswered for a moment. Then I replied, "How about none?" With that, I walked out of the room. "None" was a reasonable prediction in the political climate surrounding this out-of-control program.
However, the F-35 was a pretty uniquely messed up procurement program due to suffering from what I'd broadly call "jointness", where interservice procurement made things less efficient.

The Air Force on its own has had some pretty impressive procurement messups though. Look no further than the KC-46 Pegasus, a tanker designed to replace the KC-135 [as mentioned above loads of these are getting retired in the next couple years]. The first sign of trouble probably should have been when the first program to replace the tankers with the KC-767 [now the KC-46] was cancelled on account of a bribery scandal involving the CFO of Boeing offering the procurement official an executive position. The second sign probably should have been the whole bit where, unlike its competitor, the A330 MRTT, the KC-767 didn't actually exist. And when the A330 won the contract bid, Boeing of course protested and, ultimately, got the contract evaluated again, with [at least per Northrop Grumman's claims, who was running a joint bid with Airbus] requirements rigged for the KC-767, and, finally, almost a decade after the program started, Boeing won the bid.

Except there was the small problem that Boeing hadn't built the plane yet, which turned into a large one. Ultimately the program was marred by years of delays and major technical problems. It only recently finally began delivering aircraft to the Air Force, years late and over-budget [though the USAF did manage to claw quite a bit of it back from Boeing].

However, there are some positive signs that future procurement will be better. Besides the F-35 being saved, there's the example of the T-X program, which is to replace the elderly T-38 Talon trainer. It invited foreign competition to the field, featured vigorous competition, and resulted in an actually effective aircraft--developed by both Boeing [of course] but also Saab--yes, the Swedes have a significant hand in the trainer jet likely to equip much of the world.

In particular, something very interesting the US Air Force is doing is diving heavily into computer design and open systems architecture. What this means, in short, is that they'll design new planes with a heavy emphasis on doing detailed computer design and simulation, only finally building an aircraft to demonstrate it works IRL--which of course cuts costs substantially--and they'll try to build common hardware and software that will work in any number of aircraft. The overall idea is to make aircraft inexpensive, easy to design, and modular. The Air Force even has a buzzword for this already, the "Digital Century Series", referring to the last time the Air Force very rapidly built a whole bunch of aircraft on a relatively common hardware platform. Whether this will bear fruit remains yet to be seen.

4. Fighting the Peer Conflict

The USAF, for the past thirty years, has not faced a peer competitor. Arguably it didn't even face one before that--the Soviet Air Force was no match for what the USAF could field, as was demonstrated quite well in a number of conflicts. The good news is that the USAF has had a long time to build up a lead, and is still far ahead of China or Russia, further ahead than the Army or Navy is by a long shot--Americans like their planes and electronics. For an illustrative example, China'sJ-20 stealth fighter has been produced in a quantity of... 50; while the USAF has almost 200 F-22s and is ordering over a thousand F-35s. The Su-57 barely even flies and is nowhere near peer to what the United States can field despite whatever scary articles you might have read. The bad news is that only recently has the USAF actually begun preparing to fight a peer conflict, which will tax it in different ways.

The main vulnerabilities the Air Force has in a peer conflict are more logistical and operational than regarding the quality of its aircraft or pilots, which are moreless unmatched. The first problem is that readiness isn't fantastic thanks to the War on Terror burning through all the ancient Cold War aircraft that the USAF has operated, and yes, aircraft do wear out. In fact, large numbers of F-15Cs operated by the US Air National Guard have been grounded due to age and fatigue. The shortage of maintainers also plays a role here. There's also the problem that the US Air Force is still quite vulnerable on the ground in any peer conflict; especially to precision strikes with ballistic and cruise missiles--the US Air Force has downsized considerably and now only has a handful of bases for both political and budgetary reasons, but that means that, when facing, for instance, China, the USAF must rely heavily on just six airfields--Osan, Kunsan, Misawa, Yokota, Kadena and Andersen [maybe bring that to 9 by adding USMC and Navy installations, which field fewer and less capable aircraft].

Thus, the primary challenge that the USAF faces is a quiet one--ensuring that it can operate from dispersed locations, at high opstempo, and repair its facilities rapidly. This is really also the biggest question mark in terms of the USAF's performance, but there's some reason to be optimistic here--the USAF is aware of the threat and is actually working to solve it. However, ultimately only changes in the political environment [the addition of bases in the Philippines or Palau, or the development of readied airfields in Japan] will fix the basing problem. Better ballistic missile defense will probably also help here. Russia or China will probably have poor luck against the USAF in the air; seeking primarily to deny the USAF free reign and thus the ability to support ground offensives, but they could cause significant damage by hitting ground facilities, and everyone knows it.

There's also the question of surface-to-air missiles; which have driven quite a bit of concern the past few years as China and Russia field increasingly capable systems like the S-400 and HQ-9. It is feared that the sophistication of these weapons could create "A2/AD bubbles" where the USAF and USN are unable to operate. While the access bubble does still look quite real for the Navy, recent developments have seriously called the efficacy of surface-to-air missiles into question--particularly the fact that the Israelis and Turks seem to be able to almost ignore them, or at least their shorter-range counterparts. The destruction of Armenian S-300 launchers by Azerbaijan with Turkish drones is certainly an ominous signal for anyone thinking advanced air defenses would keep them safe. How good the full-scale systems are against conventional targets is still unknown, but my guess is much less effective than the marketing--and keep in mind that despite years of concerns, SAMs have only been successful from about 1960-1980, and even then relatively minor adjustments in strategy seemed to significantly mitigate damage--so it's unclear how concerned we should actually be about such technology.

There are also questions about whether or not the USAF is operating the right mix of aircraft for the job, and these are valid ones. The USAF is buying new F-15EX, which has literally been described as not survivable after 2028 [though there is a case for the plane as a carrier of standoff weapons or a homeland defense fighter], and still operates the A-10 [an aircraft now mostly known for a number of notorious blue-on-blue (friendly fire) incidents] which, if used in a modern environment where the USAF didn't have total air supremacy, would simply not be able to survive. Yes, there's a reason the USAF wants to scrap the A-10, and no, the GAU-8 is cool but it doesn't even kill columns of modern main battle tanks. Unless you're primarily planning on fighting North Korea, the A-10 is close to useless(ly dangerous). The B-1 has also been highlighted as obsolete, largely due to high maintenance costs. However, the USAF is working hard to scrap these aircraft as fast as politically feasible.

5. New Technologies

The Air Force has always had a certain inclination towards adopting the newest, shiniest technologies, and at the moment there are a number of interesting concepts that it is exploring. I'll talk about two of the most significant ones [especially combined] here.

First, the Air Force is seeking to create future aircraft entirely virtually--using highly detailed computer models to design numerous types of specialist aircraft, and only building prototypes to test the results that simulations produce. Their latest trainer, the "eT-7", uses this methodology--the "e" is supposed to designate that it was designed this way. There's also a move towards using common avionics and software for a variety of different aircraft. Figures high up at the Pentagon have discussed a "Digital Century Series", modeled after a chain of fighters rapidly developed in the 1950s for a number of different roles, from the F-102 interceptor to the F-105 fighter-bomber. This could potentially create numerous new aircraft rapidly; a shift back towards the times before the 1990s where a single fighter project took the entire attention and budget of the Air Force. Nobody is really sure how this will pan out but it looks quite promising. In particular, the fact that the USAF was able to take its new prototype fighter jet into the skies a year after it was originally envisioned is stunning--and suggests that this potential return to the old days of the 1940s and 1950s when new aircraft showed up every year is not just a pipe dream.

Second, the Air Force is investing in UCAVs [Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles], most notably in the Skyborg concept. The goal is to develop a low-cost drone that can both deliver additional weapons to target while being accompanied by a manned fighter--a sort of drone wingman, which is cheap enough to be expendable [thus serving a secondary purpose, soaking up enemy air to air missiles]. Numerous companies have been awarded contracts to develop UCAVs and this program is looking quite promising, so expect to hear more of it in the future.

6. Drones

Drones are a rather interesting topic and one that I'll most likely get into more detail in on my next two posts specifically regarding Turkey. The US was one of the pioneers of UAVs, with the other big player in the field being Israel--in fact the US has bought Israeli drones from time to time, though of course China and Russia have also established a presence, without even mentioning Turkey. The US has a number of drones for different purposes--largely for reconnaissance of different types and precision-strike capability. It has the RQ-4 Global Hawk, for reconnaissance, the MQ-9A Reaper, for strike missions, and the RQ-170, which.... well, probably something involving reconnaissance, it's half-CIA so who knows. However, the US may not have kept up on the ongoing drone revolution, which is actually something I can't really blame them for since the 'revolution' only started in January. Yes. Last January.

This 'revolution' began on January 5, 2020, to be exact, and was led by an unlikely candidate: Turkey. They say necessity is the mother of invention, and this was certainly the case for the Turkish drone program. After the US refused to sell Turkey drones on account of the fact that they might be used against Kurds [use of Turkish drones suggests they definitely are used against Kurds], Turkey decided to make their own drone program with blackjack and hookers--or, well, just drones. Their DIY effort didn't really garner much attention until sent to Libya,but investment in their program skyrocketed, largely for two reasons. First, Turkey has been largely barred from major hardware acquisitions from the US and, to an increasing extent, Europe. Second, Erdogan deeply distrusts the Turkish Air Force and has dramatically cut pilot numbers through his multiple purges of the service. Third, Turkey is competing out of its class, against Russia, the UAE, and other major regional powers.

Once it arrived in Libya, it suddenly became clear that the Turkish drone program was much more important than previously thought. In many ways it bore the primary responsibility for turning the war around from what looked to be almost certain defeat for the UN-recognized GNA into a state where whether or not Haftar could survive was in question. In particular, it came as a great shock to most how easily Turkey defeated the very systems that were designed to shoot down UAVs--the Russian Pantsir in particular, which has been destroyed in great quantities with few Turkish casualties to show for it--and with the sticker price for a Turkish drone less than half of the Pantsir systems they kill, it could well revolutionize warfare. Experiences in Syria, and now in Armenia, where Turkish drones have destroyed hundreds of main battle tanks and casually destroyed SAM systems from some distance above, continue to bring into question just how vast the drone revolution is going to be. I'll cover this in more explicit detail in my next two posts.

However, the USAF is watching and learning--its main difficulty with drones is more political than anything. Drones are often considered less important than manned aircraft by a leadership that largely flew manned aircraft [particularly fighters at that], and it is the bottom tier of officer recruits that fly drones [though, interestingly, some drones are actually flown by enlisted pilots] and even then there's usually a shortage of RPA pilots--that's why a few are flown by enlisted in the first place. Whether or not they'll take these lessons to heart, only time will tell, but the history of the Air Force leaves me relatively optimistic on the matter--more than many other services, it's willing to embrace change.

7. Nukes

The US Air Force runs two legs of the nuclear triad--the air and ground portions. The first is dominated by, believe it or not, gravity bombs--mostly the B61. This weapon has been sitting around in the United States [and Europe under nuclear sharing, in Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and Turkey] for a while now, the first variants being made in 1968, and has recently been updated to the latest B61-12 variant, which offers high precision [as precise as JDAMs, not that it's likely to matter in most situations where nukes are being dropped] and flexibility--the bomb can be deployed from low altitudes at high speeds, and from within the internal weapons bay of the F-22 and F-35 [not to mention the B-2 and future B-21], so it's not as dumb as it might sound. Air-launched weapons also have useful features like the ability to recall them once launched, which isn't an option for missiles, along with fitting into doctrine for a tactical nuclear war. While I could go on about the lack of air-launched nuclear cruise missiles [which hopefully will be fixed by the end of the Intermediate Forces Treaty] it's not a big deal.

The main concern here [and perhaps a suggestion that procurement is still messed up] is the ground-based deterrent, which currently consists of a few hundred Minuteman III missiles buried in the northern central United States. These missiles, like much of the Air Force, date to the 1970s and have outlasted their supposed replacement--the MX Peacekeeper. These missiles are finally approaching end of life and are to be replaced by a new ICBM system. This process is... problematic. First off, it was a sole-source bid because Northrop Grumman acquired Orbital ATK Systems, the primary American producer of solid-fuelled rockets and missiles, and this resulted in Boeing pulling out of the competition. Second, the cost seems rather high, at least in my view, with lifetime cost estimates of as much as $90 billion, with development alone amounting to $13 billion at sticker price. It positions the cost of rebuilding the ground-based deterrent as comparable to the US Navy's program to replace the Ohio-class submarines with the Columbias. The ground-based deterrent has also lost substantial importance as sea-launched and air-launched weapons have become much more accurate and capable of fulfilling the ground-based counterforce mission [which arguably died with Peacekeeper], and it remains the most vulnerable portion of the triad. What good it does is largely as another independent nuclear deterrent and one that soaks up enemy warheads in the event of nuclear war that could be directed towards other targets. A disastrous procurement here could cause problems for the Air Force you will see in the future. My suggestion would be either to continue modernizing the Minuteman IIIs or aim to replace them with the cheapest option possible--something like, for instance, a land-based Trident missile [as if the Air Force would ever allow such a thing to be built]. All the ground-based deterrent needs to do is be there, be a credible threat, and soak up enemy fire. That's it.

8. Space Force

The Space Force is now its own service branch, but as it really hasn't emerged yet I'll cover it here. In fact, just recently, the Space Force enlisted its first trainees. This is somewhat less in my area of expertise; but at the moment things look fairly promising. While the Space Force sounds silly it's almost certainly the part of the military you interact with the most in your daily life on account of running the GPS network. They also operate a variety of communications satellites and the system for monitoring ballistic missile launches, among other pieces of hardware. Expect to hear more about these guys in the future, as space becomes a potential battlefield--we've seen the deployment of a space-based anti-satellite weapon by the Russians just recently, and numerous powers now field anti-satellite missiles along with jamming equipment that can blind reconnaissance satellites, so space is becoming much more militarily important. I don't have much more to say about these guys at the moment, though, other than noting that they're already talking about being even "less physical" than the Air Force--translation: Less mandatory exercise--and they're teaching classes about space law, which is neat I guess. The main downside of the Space Force is that it's going to be very small, around 20-30,000 people, which is half what even the Coast Guard fields, and that could lead to problems with maintaining personnel and inefficiencies with redundant missions, procurement, and the like.

9. Conclusion

The USAF has problems; particularly with aging equipment and manpower, but it seems to realize that most of them exist and is moving to address them. Political constraints mean that the USAF is stuck supporting a variety of obsolete platforms and investing its large budget poorly in new ICBMs and poorly managed tankers, and procurement continues to be a struggle for the USAF, though nowhere near as bad as with the US Navy. Drones have the potential to revolutionize warfare and the USAF is working to develop capabilities in that area, albeit maybe not as fast as some other players in the field, and digital design promises more aircraft designed and produced faster--much, much faster. The USAF faces logistical challenges in a peer conflict, but nothing insurmountable--though the work there is likely to be painful and sidelined because it's less interesting than buying shiny new toys. The Space Force seems to be going along well though they could face some problems in the medium term from losing access to the USAF's resources--political, financial, and of personnel--until/unless they develop into a larger, more influential service. On the whole, though, the outlook for the USAF, at least, looks quite bright--a hope spot, along with the Army and Marines, that the serious problems of the Navy will not cripple the entire military capability of the United States.

10. Citations

Uh, I mostly embedded them in the post, and I don't want to go back and hunt for what I used after a month, but here are some good longer-form ones:
RAND, Chinese Attacks on Air Bases in Asia on the ballistic missile threat
Ryan Snyder, The Future of the ICBM Force: Should the Least Valuable Leg of the Triad Be Replaced?

RAND, Creating a Separate Space Force mostly focusing on administrative difficulties and personnel issues

RAND, Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operatoinal Limits of Air Defense Systems on drones and the conflicts in Libya and Syria [yes, it's all RAND, no Brookings Institute or such this time round]. It also explains why air defense systems are perhaps much more vulnerable than commonly thought, which I didn't really get into here.

Washington Post, Air Force seeks a radical shift in how jets, missiles, and satellites are designed with more detail on the shift to more computerized design the US Air Force wants to make

CSIS, The Air Force Digital Century Series: Beyond the Buzzwords taking apart the "Digital Century Series" push
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2020.10.19 21:08 mitcheath Intermittent internet dropping going on 3rd week w/o a fix AFTER tech has looked at all connections

Let me start from the beginning. I hope someone is able to give me some feedback.
About three weeks ago I started having minor internet issues. I currently have basic internet only (100 mbps) package of spectrum in NE Ohio region. We hadn't had issues in awhile but my wife noticed spotty internet drops which would stop our streams and buffer them occasionally. From recent history, that would lead me to swap out the modem. We had at the time a Spectrum-provided E31T2V1 modem and I have my own Linksys WRT1900AC router. I took the E31T2V1 modem back to spectrum and they instructed me it was over a year old and they are now pushing out upgraded DOCSIS 3.1 modems. Cool, I thought. Must be why my internet was dropping occasionally. I get home and plug in my Hitron EN2251 modem and the "online" light pulses from white to blue. I call spectrum and they try to ping my modem and reset it from customer service - no luck. Turns out my signal isn't strong enough going to the modem to even get an internet signal now. Great. "We unfortunately can't get a tech out until Wednesday at the earliest" is what I am told, on Friday night. "The store associate should have checked that you had adequate signal strength before giving you the newer model modem. That's their fault." So now, on Spectrum's fault, I will be without any internet signal until (last) Wednesday.
I ended up having to push the tech to Friday as that was their earliest appointment available for an evening after I got off work. I was able to plug in my modem to a coax spot which was not off a splitter to get VERY spotty internet signal, until a tech came out that Friday. The tech checks my signal from the pole to my house - all good. My coax is definitely dated. He runs a new coax from my garage to the basement and up into my office directly into my modem. I definitely had one too many splitters (dang old cable TV setup). Understandable. I think, this has to be all my issues fixed now, right? Perfect signal incoming to the new modem, first time I have had stable internet in a week, router is fired up. All seems well. Tech starts pinging the router and says all is good. As he is packing up, the internet goes out. Drops for ~10 seconds, then kicks back on. I don't think the tech would've believed me if he didn't see it on his own laptop he was pinging with. He was confused, as the MODEM did NOT show the internet dropping at all - however it was now the ROUTER showing internet dropping. This happened about 4 times while we stood there for 10 minutes. To no avail, the tech left saying he couldn't do anything because all signals showed as good to the modem and there were no "drops" showing on the modem activity lights (all stayed blue). He said I should reach out to Linksys, and search the internet to see if I have proper firmware updated on the router.
The entire Friday night I am doing everything I can to see what is wrong now with my router. I have NEVER in my life had an issue with this router. It has been the rock in my system. I factory reset the entire thing, re-setup my wifi, made sure all firmware was up to date, and still had the same issue. Internet would flicker from blue to orange on the router, indicating no connection, for about 10 seconds, then kick back on. I started pinging the internet and the router and I would get "transmit failed. General Failure" during those ~10 seconds the internet drops. My father in law brought over his extra router (Linksys WRT1900ACS) and I tried replacing that - still same issues. I then pulled out my old reliable router from a few years ago - a Belkin N600 router. You guessed it - still getting the same internet dropping issues.
I went back to the 1900ACS as a final straw - father in law was nice enough to let me keep it once I get these issues resolved - and I am now currently in a state of confusion. It is now Monday, and I have no idea what the issue is. My last resort is going to be buying my own DOCSIS 3.0 router (as I said, I don't plan on utilizing DOCSIS 3.1 speeds anytime soon/ever). Since the tech gave me a brand new coax line in, and I tested three different routers to no avail - I am almost certain it has to do with the spectrum modem "upgrade". I am currently between choosing either the Motorola MB7621 or the Netgear CM600. I have also thought about the Arris SB6183, however, when I went on Spectrum's page to "upgrade" my internet package to 400mbps, the authorized modem list attached to their package did not list the SB6183 anymore? So I figured to be safe I would go with the Motorola or the Netgear.
If ANYONE has any thoughts as to if they agree/disagree with my thoughts, I am all ears. Thank you all in advance!

Edit 1: UPDATE
Last night I spent time troubleshooting again. I took advice from b0g8 and I tried hooking up a computer directly to the modem. Of course, NO INTERNET DROPS. I know this isn't super crucial, but what this tells me is one of two things- that A) the internet coming in from the new coax is all good, and the modem does indeed work. There was no drops, no latency issues, nothing. It was flawless. So the connection coming into the house is all good. Which leads to B)... Since I am having connection drops once the router is hooked up, there HAS to be some sort of error in connection between the modem and router. I don't know what would be causing communication errors that make the router drop internet when the modem is not dropping internet, but that's where I currently stand. This is making me lean to replace the modem with my own, in hopes that my own modem will communicate with the router correctly.
I think I would rather spend sub-$100 on a new modem in hopes that solves my issue than spend sub-$200 on a new router that may or may not communicate with this modem correctly.
This still leaves my question to you - Motorola MB7621 or Netgear CM600?
So to anyone and everyone who needs clarification, I ended up taking back the Hitron modem. I asked if they had any other brands of the modem (Technicolor or Ubee) and they gave a very quick “no” response. Also, they did not ask a single question as to why I was changing or what was wrong, and when I said I would t take another Hitron and I would buy my own router instead, they just said okay. I went to my local Staples later that day and picked up the last Netgear CM600 modem for $79. I plugged it in that afternoon, followed the instructions for activating the modem after hardwiring into it from my computer, and it has been working flawlessly the last few days ever since. I am 1000% convinced that it was a puma chipset issue. I have no clue why the router was struggling so hard and why the Hitron modem seemed to work just fine when hardwired to a computer.
I hope this post helps anyone who also has the same or similar modem/internet connectivity issues.
submitted by mitcheath to Spectrum [link] [comments]

2020.10.19 18:01 youto2 It Just Means More - Part One

We slowly fade from black into the live stream, where we see the jam packed venue for tonight’s show, with 1090 WiR fans in attendance cheering, holding up their signs and chanting as we go on air.
Crowd: W-i-R! W-i-R! W-i-R!
The camera cuts and we see Paisner and Woodbridge at the commentary desk, as the crowd continues to be loud.
Paisner: Welcome everyone to the jam packed GSU Sports Arena in Atlanta Georgia, where WiR presents…..IT JUST MEANS MORE! I’m Allen Paisner, joined here by Mark Woodbridge-
Woodbridge: -who’s joined here by Johnnie Walker Black!...
Woodbridge displays his bottle to the camera, as Paisner picks the introduction back up.
Paisner: And these WiR fans are JACKED for what promises to be a great night of action!
Woodbridge: You ain’t kidding! KCJ defends her Independent Title against Tony Stevens, The Stargazers defend the World Tag Belts against The Horde, and we crown the Interim WiR World Champion in a 6 Man Scramble!
Paisner: Not to mention Team BS vs. The Young Cardinals in Tag Team Action, and Austin Balandran vs. Klutch, which has MAJOR implications for the legal future of this company!
Woodbridge: Right! But up first, it’s gonna be a DANDY! Jim Baker vs. Cam’ron West, with a very unique stipulation!
Paisner: It’s gonna be the SOUL ON A POLE match, and it‘ll be a hell of a way to start this thing off! Let's take it down to our ring announcer Javier Babaganoush for the introductions.
We cut to the hard cam, and see Javier Babaganoush in the center of the ring with mic in hand, ready to speak.
Babaganoush: Ladies and Gentlemen, your opening contest is a SOUL ON A POLE MATCH!!!
Babaganoush: In this contest, there are no Pinfalls, No Submissions, No Count-outs and No Disqualifications! The ONLY way to win, is to retrieve the Lunchbox containing the “Soul” of each competitor from the top of the pole!
The camera pans to the large Pole which has been attached to the corner of the ring. At the very top there is a Lunchbox dangling from a small steel chain, the same lunchbox Cam’ron West used to “extract the souls” of each competitor on the recent episode of House Party.
Babaganoush: Your referee for this contest is Mia So Hung!
Mia So Hung steps through the ropes into the ring, and waves out to the audience to a small pop from the crowd.
Paisner: Here we go, It’s Soul on a Pole, and this match is brought to you by, somewhat befittingly, Disney & Pixar’s SOUL, coming to the Disney Plus streaming service on December 25th this year!
Woodbridge: Can’t wait for that one!
Jim Baker’s theme hits the sound system, and the camera erupts in a mix of cheers and boos, but the reception is definitely mostly positive. Baker himself steps through the curtains, wearing a Horde Jacket, and his usual black trunks and boots. Baker shadowboxes and the top of the entrance stage, before walking down the aisle, stretching his arms out as he does so, warming himself up as he walks.
Babaganoush: Introducing first, representing The Horde, from Cincinnati, Ohio, weighing in at 245 pounds…………..JIM…..BAAAKKKEEER!!!!
Jim Baker rolls himself into the ring, and continues to stretch, knowing that he’s gotta stay in decent shape, considering this is his first of 2 matches tonight.
Paisner: And here comes Jim Baker of The Horde, and this won’t be his only rodeo tonight. First he has this match with West, and later on tonight he’ll be challenging for the Tag Titles!
Woodbridge: And you gotta wonder how that’s gonna play into this one. Is Baker looking to the Horizon and not in front of his face? We know he wants to bring the World Tag Titles to The Horde, but he’s gotta stay 100 percent focused on Cam’ron here, and worry about the Tag Match later.
Paisner” But one thing is for sure; win or lose, the faster Baker can get through Cam’ron here, the better it is for his chances at winning the World Tag Titles tonight.
Baker looks ready to go, and his music fades away. We soon hear none other than the Anime intro-like theme of Cam’ron West, as West steps through the curtains to a pop from the crowd!
Cam’ron stands at the top of the stage, with very minimalist pyro going off, before walking down the aisle and towards the ring.
Babaganoush: And his opponent, from Another World, weighing in at 180 Pounds……..CAM’RON…….WEEEESSSTTTT!!!
Paisner: Cam’ron West is a bit of an oddball, but he’s no doubt got heart, and the fans respect him for it.
Woodbridge: He’s not only got heart, but he’s got a set on him too! He burned Jim Baker’s park bench to ashes, for god's sakes! I heard around the grapevine that he basically lived on that thing for a year!
Paisner: The rivalry between these two has escalated at a lightning fast rate these last few weeks, but now, at It Just Means More, someone’s ‘Soul’ will be claimed in this match!!!
Cam’ron hops up to the apron, and steps through the ropes into the ring. He doesn’t take his eyes off Baker, and Baker’s eyes are firmly locked on West as well. Cam’ron’s music fades away, and the two are left in their opposite corners, as the referee, Mia So Hung, checks to see if each competitor is ready.
Woodbridge: In a match like this, no DQ, no Count Outs, no submission or pinfall to record, Mia’s basically just out here to check on the general well being of the competitors, and that MAY very well be a good idea with these two heated rivals.
Mia sees that both competitors are ready, and calls for the opening bell!
Cam’ron and Baker immediately meet in the middle of the ring, and start throwing wild right hands at each other, trading blows back and forth!
Paisner: And here we go, this one’s starting off HOT!
Baker and Cam’ron continue to trade shots, back and forth, but after a bit it appears as if Cam’ron gets the upper hand. Baker appears to be much groggier than Cam’ron. Cam’ron throws another shot at Baker, but this time Baker doesn’t follow up, and Cam’ron hits him with another, and another, and another! Baker stands on wobbly legs in the middle of the ring, and Cam’ron takes a couple of steps back, winding up his arm before lunging at Baker with a big punch, but Baker blocks it, and catches Cam’ron with a punch of his own! Now Baker starts hitting West with a flurry of right hands, and backs Cam’ron into the ropes! Cameron stands a bit dazed, leaning against the ropes, and Baker turns around to run towards the opposite set of ropes, rebounding off of them and charging at Cam’ron!
Woodbridge: Look at Baker!
Baker dashes towards Cam’ron, and clotheslines him over the top rope and to the floor! With Cam’ron out of the ring, Baker quickly makes a beeline for the Pole, running towards the corner and starting to climb the turnbuckles, quickly trying to reach up at the Lunchbox containing the ‘Souls’!!
Paisner: Baker’s gonna win it right here!!!!
But Cam’ron quickly gets back up to his feet, using the ring apron to help him back up. Cam’ron slides back in the ring, and runs over to the corner, jumping up and hitting Baker in the spine with a forearm shot.
Woodbridge: Cam’ron’s not gonna go down without a fight!
Baker continues to try and reach the Lunchbox to pull it down, but Cam’ron grabs Baker by the leg, and pulls him off the top rope! Baker comes down and hits his face on the top turnbuckle, and stands near the corner looking a bit dazed! Cam’ron grabs Baker by the head, and takes him down to the mat with a Snapmare, immediately followed up with an elbow strike to the top of the head!
Baker lays on the mat clutching his head, and Cam’ron gets back up to his feet, and walks over to the corner with the ‘Souls’ on the Pole. Cam’ron starts climbing up the turnbuckles, trying to reach the Lunchbox, but he’s out of reach as he stands on the second rope. Cam’ron looks about ready to climb up to the top rope, but before he does, he turns around to see Baker getting back up to his feet. Cam’ron decides against going for the ‘Soul’ for now, and turns his body around to face Baker as he stands on the second rope. Baker gets back up to a vertical base, and Cam’ron leaps off the second rope to catch him with a dropkick!!
Paisner: And what a dropkick from Cam’ron West!
Woodbridge: Cam’ron’s not your typical wrestler, but that was a veteran move from him to check on Baker’s status before going all the way up to the top rope.
Baker lays on the mat in pain, as the crowd applauds the athleticism from Cam’ron. Cam’ron gets back up to his feet, and leaps up into the air before coming down onto the prone Baker with a Legdrop! Baker rolls towards the ropes, and rolls out of the ring to the floor. Cam’ron walks over to the ropes, and steps through them onto the apron, dropping onto the floor as well. Cam’ron peels Baker off the floor and up to his feet, and tucks his head, before lifting him up and dropping him with a Snap Suplex to the floor!
Paisner: Snap Suplex to the floor!!!
Baker lays in a heap on the floor, clutching his back, and wincing in pain. Cam’ron doesn’t give him much of a rest though, as he bends down to pick Baker back up off the floor, and once again he grabs a hold of him, dropping him to the floor with another Suplex!
Paisner: Another suplex from Cam’ron to Baker on the floor!
Woodbridge: And Cam’ron can do it again and again and again if he wants to! There’s no risk of getting counted out in this match!
Baker yells in pain now as he lays on the floor, while Cam’ron turns his attention to the apron of the ring. West lifts up the ringskirt, and looks underneath the ring for a potential weapon! After a bit of searching, Cam’ron pulls a TABLE out from underneath the ring!
Paisner: Cam’ron’s got a table! This doesn’t bode well for Baker!
Cam’ron starts undoing the table legs, and setting the table in its upright position at ringside. Cam’ron gets the table completely set up, but as he turns around to check on Baker, he gets caught off guard with a big forearm shot to the face! Baker follows up with another forearm, and another, and another! Baker then grabs Cam’ron by the back of the head, and bashes his face into the set-up Table!
Woodbridge: Baker smacking Cam’ron’s face against that hard wooden table! Cam’ron may have taken a bit too long to get that table set up!
Paisner: Or maybe he didn’t damage Baker enough before trying to set up the table in the first place! Either way, Baker’s back in the driver's seat!
Baker sends Cam’ron back through the ropes and inside the ring and Baker slides in after him. Cam’ron starts trying to get back up to his feet, but Baker hits him with a hard kick to the gut, and follows up by grabbing him, and lifting him over his head and to the mat with a Pumphandle Suplex!
Baker starts making his way over to the corner with the pole, but he hesitates for a moment. He turns around to see Cam’ron trying to push himself up to his feet, and he realizes more work must be done. Baker walks back over to Cam’ron, and grabs him by the head, planting him on the mat with a SPIKE DDT!
Paisner: SPIKE DDT!!! Good lord!
Woodbridge: Baker just drilled him!
Baker gets back up once again, and starts making his way to the corner with the pole once more. Baker starts climbing the turnbuckles again, but as he gets up to the second rope, he hears some rustling behind him. Baker pauses his climb for a moment to turn around, and he sees Cam’ron once again starting to stir, starting to get back up to a vertical base.
Woodbridge: Cam'ron-sama is refusing to stay down!
Paisner: And this seems to be throwing a monkey wrench in Baker’s plans! He’s trying to win this ASAP so he can be fresh for the Tag Title Match later tonight, but Cam’ron is proving to be tougher than he may have expected!
Baker hops off the turnbuckle once again, and makes his way to Cam’ron. Baker pulls Cam’ron up to his feet, and grabs Cam’ron by the back of the head. Baker now has his eyes locked on the table that Cam’ron set up at ringside!
Paisner: Baker’s got eyes on that table!!!
Woodbridge: THIS will keep Cam’ron down!
Baker grabs a hold of the back of Cam’ron’s head, and starts running with him to the ropes!
Woodbridge: He’s gonna send him through!!!
Baker chucks Cam’ron over the top rope, but Cam’ron hangs onto the top rope for dear life, as he stands on the apron in dangerous proximity to the table!
Paisner: Cam’ron hung onto the top rope, and that saved him from going through that table!
Woodbridge: But look at Baker!
Baker bounces off the opposite set of ropes, and starts charging at West, looking to knock him off the table, but Cam’ron gets his feet up, catching Baker on the side of the head with an Enziguiri! Baker takes a few steps back, looking a bit rocked after that kick, and Cam’ron somersaults through the middle rope, before popping up and taking Baker down with a big dropkick!!!!
Paisner: What a move from Cam’ron!
Woodbridge: This may be his opportunity!
Baker scrambles back up to his feet, but he runs right into the arms of Cam’ron, who takes him down to the mat with a BIG BLUE THUNDER BOMB!
Paisner: Blue Thunder Bomb! Blue Thunder Bomb!
Woodbridge: Cam’ron’s starting to feel it!
Baker looks dazed, laying in a heap on the mat, but he slowly starts to roll onto his stomach, push himself up, and rise back up to a vertical base. Cam’ron stands against the ropes, lying in wait, looking fired up!
Paisner: This crowd’s on their feet!
Baker, with a look of pain on his face, makes his way up to his feet, and Cam’ron lunges with full force towards Baker………………. taking him down with a big RUNNING LARIAT!
Woodbridge: THE WEST-ERN LARIAT!!!
Instinctually, Cam’ron goes for the cover, hooking the leg, but Mia reminds Cam that the match cannot be won by pinfall!
Paisner: But Pinfalls don’t count!
Woodbridge: If they did, Cam’ron would’ve just won this!
Paisner: Cam’ron just let muscle-memory take over. He’s from another world, and as such he may be getting used to regular wrestling matches, but he’s not entirely used to matches like this, where there are no Pinfalls!
Cam’ron looks a bit flustered, but he doesn’t let it affect him for long. Cam’ron now starts walking over to the corner with the Pole, and starts climbing up the turnbuckles, while Baker lays in a heap on the mat!
Woodbridge: Now Cam’ron has his eyes on the prize, and this may be the beginning of the end of this match!
Camron climbs all the way up to the top rope, and starts reaching up at the lunchbox, mere fingertips away!
Paisner: Cam’ron’s close! He’s real close!
Camron tries to grab a hold of the lunchbox, but as he reaches up, Baker starts getting back up to a vertical base, and starts hobbling towards the ropes.
Woodbridge: Baker’s up, fighting through the pain!
Baker hobbles towards the ropes at a great speed, and flails his body at the top rope, causing Cam’ron’s foot to slip off the rope, and Cam’ron crotches himself on the top turnbuckle!!!
Woodbridge: DAMN! Right in the family jewels! And look at Cam’ron, he’s in agony!
Camron sits crotched on the top turnbuckle, with a look of pure agony and pain on his face! Baker hobbles over to West on the turnbuckles, and pulls his body downwards with his feet still hooked on the turnbuckles, setting Cam’ron up in the Tree of Woe!
Crowd: OOOOHHHH!!!
Paisner: Tree of Woe! This could be DISASTROUS for Cam’ron West!!!
Baker steps through the ropes, and starts climbing up the turnbuckles, slowly making his way up to the top rope, and using the pole to help balance himself. He looks down at Cam’ron, who hasn’t moved very much in the tree of woe, and Baker starts reaching up for the Lunchbox, trying to grab a hold of it, unhook it and put this match to rest!
Paisner: Baker’s got another match to worry about later tonight, he’s doing the smart thing here, trying to end this ASAP!
But as Baker tries to grab the Lunchbox, Cam’ron starts using his core strength to slowly pull himself back up!
Woodbridge: But Cam’ron’s not quite done yet!
Baker looks down to see Cam’ron trying to get back up, and he kicks him right in the face, sending Cam’ron right back down in the tree of woe position!
Paisner: Baker’s gotta create some separation between himself and Cam’ron, and I think he may realize it too!
Baker now stands on the top turnbuckle facing Cam’ron, looking down at him as he tries to pull himself up again. Cam’ron tries to use his core and pull himself back up asain, but Baker leaps off the top, and comes down onto West with a DIVING DOUBLE FOOT STOMP!
Cam’ron lays on the mat with a look of agony on his face, while Baker quickly rolls out of the ring, and lifts up the ringskirt to look for a weapon! Baker pulls a STEEL CHAIR out, and slides it into the ring before rolling in the ring himself!
Woodbridge: Now Baker has a chair! Cam’ron’s in deep shit!!!
Baker positions the Chair flat in the center of the ring, before making his way over to the vulnerable West. Baker bends down, and grabs Cam’ron by the arms, dragging him to the center of the ring. Baker pulls Cam back up to a vertical base, before tucking his head in between his legs, lifting him up……...and DROPPING HIM RIGHT ONTO THE STEEL CHAIR WITH A THUNDEROUS POWERBOMB!!!
Woodbridge: HOT DAMN! CAM IS OUT!!!!
Cam’ron looks to be nearly motionless on the mat, and he seems absolutely physically spent!
Woodbridge: Cam’ron just got sent for a ride, and now Baker’s going for the ‘Souls!’ This has gotta be it!
Baker wastes no time after the Big Powerbomb. After dropping Cam’ron, Baker immediately makes his way to the corner with the pole, and he starts climbing up the turnbuckles as fast as his body can muster!
Paisner: Baker’s climbing, and Cam’ron’s still down!
Baker climbs up the turnbuckles and stands on the top rope, reaching up and grazing his fingers on the Lunchbox!
Paisner: Baker’s got his fingers on that Lunchbox, he’s just gotta get a good grip on it!
Baker, while trying to keep his balance on the top rope, desperately tries to reach for the Lunchbox, and he almost gets a good grip on it…
Woodbridge: Baker’s about to put this one away!
Baker finally grabs a hold of the Lunchbox………....but Cam’ron West, fighting through all the pain in his body, starts getting back up to his feet on the mat, and he quickly hobbles himself over to the corner!
Paisner: How is Cam’ron standing?!?!
Woodbridge: I don’t know, but he may be too late!!!
Cam’ron wastes little time, and climbs up to the second rope, throwing forearm shots into the back of Baker. Baker still keeps his balance on the top turnbuckle, hanging onto the pole for stability, as he grabs a hold of the Lunchbox with his other hand!!!
Paisner: Baker’s just gotta unhook the Lunchbox!!!
Cam’ron now climbs all the way up to the top rope, and grabs Baker by the waist, leaning back and trying to use gravity to pull him off the turnbuckle!!! Baker starts to tip backwards, and he releases his grip on the lunchbox to grab the pole with both hands, hanging on for dear life!!!
Woodbridge: Cam’ron’s trying to take him down!
Paisner: Baker’s desperately trying to hang on!!!
Cam’ron throws a couple more forearm strikes to the back of Baker, and tries to pull him off again, but Baker hangs on!
Paisner: How much longer can Baker hang on!?!?!
Cam’ron, still with one arm wrapped around Baker’s waist, now starts reaching out to Baker’s upper arm with his free hand, hitting him with hammer strikes to the bicep, trying to break Baker’s grip as he hangs on for dear life with both hands!!! With each strike from Cam’ron to Baker’s bicep, Baker loses more and more grip, and his fingers start slipping off the pole!
Paisner: Baker’s slipping!!!
With Baker’s grip severely weakened, Cam’ron hooks both arms around Baker’s waist once again, and leans back………………throwing Baker off the top rope with a SUPER GERMAN SUPLEX!!!!
Baker lays nearly motionless on the mat, but Cam’ron starts using the nearby ropes to help pull himself back up to a vertical base! Cam’ron looks up at the Lunchbox, and starts climbing the turnbuckles!
Paisner: Baker’s down, and Cam’ron West may be a few small moments away from victory!
Cam’ron slowly climbs up the turnbuckles, reaching up to the Lunchbox, but he’s not quite there yet. He climbs up to the top rope, grabbing a hold of the pole to balance himself, and he reaches up to the lunchbox, grazing his fingers on it!
Woodbridge: Cam is close, he’s REAL close!!!
Cam’ron manages to get a good grip on the Lunchbox, and starts trying to unhook it!
Paisner: It looks like Cam’ron’s got it!!!
Cam’ron just about unhooks it, but before he can, suddenly a whole entire STEEL CHAIR is thrown by a kneeling Baker in the ring, and it thwacks Cam’ron on the back of the head!!!!
Woodbridge: DAMN! Baker just chucked that chair at West!
Paisner: Baker didn’t have enough time to get up and physically pull Cam’ron off that turnbuckle, but thanks to that Steel Chair that was used earlier being close to him on the mat, as well as a great throw, Baker’s momentarily still in this one!
Baker stays in his kneeling position on the mat, still in a great deal of pain, while Cam’ron pulls his hand off the Lunchbox to favor the back of his head, as he stands groggy on the top rope.
Woodbridge: Cam may be out on his feet on that top rope! This is a very precarious position!
Baker drops down from his knees to flat down on the mat, and rolls over to the side of the ring, rolling underneath the ropes, and using them to pull himself back up to his feet on the apron. Baker walks over to the corner, and starts throwing punches at Cam’ron’s thigh, causing Cam to hunch over and try to balance himself against the pole. With Cam hunched over, Baker reaches up……….shoving Cam’ron off the top, sending him CRASHING THROUGH THE TABLE SET UP AT RINGSIDE!!!!
Woodbridge: JESUS!!!
Cam’ron lays in the wreckage of the broken table on the floor, and Mia So Hung immediately checks on him. The crowd starts chanting at what they’ve just seen!
Paisner: And the table that Cam’ron set up earlier in the match just came back to haunt him, and now Baker’s all but won this thing!
Baker looks down at the wreckage of the table and Cam’ron, before climbing up the turnbuckles, slowly getting closer and closer to the top while Cam’ron remains motionless on the floor. Baker stands on the top rope, hanging on to the pole for support, while reaching up at the Lunchbox, grabbing ahold of it……..and unhooking it from the pole, securing the Lunchbox with the ‘Souls’ of himself and Cam’ron and winning the match! Mia So Hung calls for the bell!
Paisner: Jim Baker has done it, he has the ‘Soul’ of Cam’ron West!
Babaganoush: At a time of 17 minutes and 20 seconds, here is your winner……….JIM…..BBAAAKKKEERRRRR!!!
As Baker’s music hits, the crowd rises to their feet and starts applauding, clapping for both men for their efforts in the match. Baker stands on the top rope against the pole, looking elated after this big win.
Paisner: Holy SMOKES what a brawl that was! Both men gave it their all, and they’re standing here in Atlanta!
Baker climbs down off the corner with the Lunchbox in hand, raising his fist in the air in victory, but taking some deep breaths as he does so.
Paisner: Congratulations to Baker, but hats off to Cam’ron as well! What a way to kick this show off!
Baker rolls out of the ring, with the Lunchbox in hand, and he looks down at Cam’ron who is still being tended to by Mia So Hung. Cam’ron barely has his eyes open, but Baker nods his head slightly down at him, a small show of respect from Baker to West.
Paisner: West gave it a hell of a go in that match, and while Baker may not like him, I think he’s earned a bit of Baker’s respect here tonight.
Baker walks back up the aisle, not limping, not showing any major signs of injury, but he definitely looks to be in a great deal of pain, and looks slightly exhausted.
Paisner: After that match, the two questions on my mind are ‘Where does Cam’ron West go from here?’ and ‘What shape will Baker be in later tonight?’
Woodbridge: After that showing, I’d say Cam’ron’s getting better and better in the ring, and he’ll continue to improve his game. As for Baker, he’s gonna have a couple hours to recuperate before his Tag Title Match tonight, but he took a LOT of punishment in this match. Even with a couple hours rest, I don’t think he’ll be at 100% later tonight.
Paisner: Time will tell, ladies and gentlemen. But now, coming up next we have tag team action as Team BS, Buster Braggadocio and Stephen Romero take on Miles Alpha and Dalidus Nova of the Young Cardinals.
Woodbridge: And there’s a lot to say for the partnership between Buster and Romero. They’re two sides of the same coin more or less, both of them proud of their ethnicity and who they are, but there’s a disparity between the attitudes of the two.
Paisner: Nova and Alpha at first glance would seem to be a more cohesive unit, but I wouldn’t dare count Buster and Romero out. If there’s any group who’s insufferable enough to get Romero and Braggadocio on the same page, it’s the Young Cards.
Woodbridge: We’ll send it down to my boy Javier for the introductions!
We cut to Babaganoush, who stands in the ring with the mic.
Javier: The following tag team contest is scheduled for one fall…..
Crowd: ONE FALL!
Javier:......with a 60 Minute Time Limit! Your referee is Ivan Itichicock!
The crowd applauds for Itchicock as he enters the ring. We pan over the crowd as some funky beats begin to play over the sound system.
Javier: Introducing First, From Atlanta, Georgia……….
Paisner: Hometown pop!
Javier:...the first half of Team BS: BUUSTTERRR BRAGGAADOOCIIIIOOOOOO!!!!
Buster saunters through the entrance of the runway without a care in the world. He stops for a moment, turning around to reveal "Straight Outta TEAM BS" sewn onto the back of his vest. It’s clearly his own handy work, with the letters hastily stitched on with the same material as his flashy red pants.
Crowd: WOOOOO!
Crowd: BOOOOO!
He continues down the runway, mostly getting cheers from his hometown…..until he starts accusing fans of being ‘crackers’ regardless of their heritage.
Paisner: Once again Buster has chosen to keep his entrance for this tag team match.
Woodbridge: We all know that Romero and Braggadocio don’t necessarily see eye to eye on everything - but this is looking more and more like a sign that things may not be all sunshine and rainbows.
Paisner: Woodbridge, may I give some professional feedback? As a friend?
Woodbridge: … Yes?
Paisner: Maybe we shouldn’t run straight to the rainbow metaphors when speaking about these two.
Woodbridge: That’s not what I…
Paisner: Because his partner is-
Woodbridge, pinching the bridge of his nose: Yes. Noted, thank you.
The lights dim as another familiar song begins to play throughout the ring.
Javier: And hailing from Sacramento, California, STEEEPPHHENN ROOOMMERRROOOO!
Crowd: RO-MER-O! RO-MER-O!
Romero appears at the end of the runway, playing off of the cheering fans who jump to greet him. He stays friendly, handing out fist bumps along his walk to the ring, but those who look close enough can see that he isn’t feeling as confident as usual.
He steps into the ring and hops up onto the turnbuckles, running a hand through his hair before raising a fist to the crowd. After returning to his corner, he looks expectantly to the top of the runway just in time for the lights to dim once again.
Dalidus Nova and Miles Alpha walk out wearing matching military jackets with the canadian flag stitched onto the arms
Javier: And their opponents, representing The Vanguard. At a combined weight of 415 pounds, The YOOOOOOOOUNG CARDINALS, MILES ALPHA AND DALIDUUUUUS NOOOOVA!
Paisner: The former tag team champs have had issues with the newly formed Team BS for a few months now.
Woodbridge: Yes, but despite being a team for years, they might not be fully on the same page either, as Joey McCarty has been busy with individual championship pursuits to help his fellow Cardinals tonight.
The Cardinals walk straight to the ring, ignoring the fans and staring down Romero and Braggadocio. The two Cardinals step into the ring, Alpha subtly bopping his head to the music, as the two hand their jackets to Chondon. Their music starts to fade away, and both teams get ready in their respective corners. Itchicock confirms both teams are ready, and calls for the opening bell!
As the bell sounds, Romero and Nova stare one another down, before both charging from out the corner! Romero swinging out with a lariat, an action Nova seems to have anticipated as he quickly gets slow to slide under and in between Romero’s legs to get behind him! Nova quickly rises and jumps up to deliver a dropkick to Romero’s back! Sending Romero stumbling towards the ropes, as Alpha runs over to the center of the apron to try and catch Romero with a kick to the head from the outside! But Romero manages to duck his head under, as he turns around, and sees a charging Nova coming right for him! Romero sidesteps just as Nova goes for a superkick, Nova nearly kicking Alpha, but Alpha reacting fast enough to catch Nova’s leg, and try to turn it right back around into their favor as he spins Nova by the leg to try and get him to catch Romero in the head with it! But Romero ducks straight under it! Then rises up to clock Nova on the jaw with a stiff forearm strike! Sending Nova stumbling back and onto a knee, as Alpha tries to run over to near Romero and swing with his own strike, but Romero catches him with a back elbow! Dropping Alpha to his ass on the apron!
Paisner: The Cardinals managing to avoid taking each other out, and hell, nearly turning back around a potentially bad situation into getting one over on Romero, but Romero with incredible awareness and timing with his moves! Subduing both cardinals!
Nova has groggily gotten up and backed themselves up into a corner, which Romero turns his head to see, and charges at Nova with a clothesline in the corner! Sending Nova sinking down in the corner! Romero then grabs Nova and brings him back up, before heading to the opposite corner, and rushing back with a second clothesline! This one knocking the air out of Nova, as he falls to a seated position in the corner!
Romero has a confident look on his face, as he grabs a hurt Nova, struggling to get air into his body, then just biel tosses him across near all the way across the ring! Nova landing right near the opposite corner!
Woodbridge: The absurd strength of this man! That’s over 220 pounds tossed like it’s nothing!
Nova is loopy in the corner, grabbing the ropes, and slowly pulling himself up. Eventually making his way up to his feet, as Romero goes to rush towards him again!.....but Nova slips himself through the ropes, then flicks himself up to connect with a pendulum kick to the head of Romero! Stunning him in the center of the ring! Nova then steps back into the ring, taking a moment to catch his breath, before running towards Romero, then jumping up with an enziguri to Romero’s head! Sending Romero a bit wobbly on his feet!
Nova then grabs the wobbly Romero, and tosses him into his tag corner, where we see a now-recovered Alpha standing up. Nova tags in Alpha, as Romero in the corner tries to quickly grab Nova and strike Nova away, but Alpha strikes Romero in the head from behind to stun him, and stop him! Nova begins to lay in hard kicks to Romero’s midsection as Alpha then steps into the ring, where he joins in with the kicks to the midsection! Romero sinking down in the corner as The Cardinals send kick after kick into his chest! Before the two link arms, as Alpha whips Nova towards the center of the ring, before Nova turning himself to whip Alpha even closer to the center, before Nova then sends Alpha running back towards Romero! Alpha sent at a high speed as he jumps up with a hesitation dropkick to the face of Romero! Leaving him completely seated and loopy in the corner!
Woodbridge: Young Cardinals seeking to do what they do best, on point teamwork learned from years of experience not only as just general tag wrestlers, but with each other specifically. Buster and Romero may know the tag ring very well, but they can’t compete with how well Nova and Alpha know each other specifically.
Nova then heads over to the apron, as Alpha walks towards Romero, and goes to press his boot into Romero’s neck! Romero grabs onto Alpha’s legs, and goes to pry him off quickly, but Alpha drops down to dropkick Romero’s face to re-stun him, before getting up and extending his leg out again to successfully press it into Romero’s neck and choke him out!
All the air is pressed out of Romero, as he struggles around while Alpha applies the choke. Itchicock eventually begins to count Alpha off, who breaks only right before the 5 count!
Alpha smirks at his work, Romero holding at his neck on the ground, struggling to breath, as Alpha then just begins to lightly tap at Romero’s head with his boot!
Paisner: And now just palpable disrespect from Alpha! Taunting Romero on the ground!
Alpha keeps booting the head of Romero, yelling out taunting remark after taunting remark as Romero begins to push himself up against it. Romero gets to a knee, as eventually Alpha switches to doing something more legit harmful, as he shoots down forearm strikes into the head of Romero! Sending a hard one right down into Romero, but Romero moves through and continues to rise up! Alpha then strikes with another rough forearm to Romero, but still Romero is not deterred! Alpha beginning to panic, starts striking rapidly with the forearms, looking to subdue Romero with an absolute onslaught of forearms, but eventually, Romero forcefully pushes himself up and breaks through! Alpha is sent flying across the ring, falling on his ass, as he scrambles to his feet and rushes back at Romero to try and re-take advantage, but runs right into Romero tossing out an open palm chop! Impacting Alpha’s chest hard, and flooring him right to the ground!
Alpha writhes around on the mat! Moaning in pain, clutching at his chest, now left with a big red spot in the middle, as Romero then lets out a roar!
Romero then takes a moment to catch his breath and collect himself, before he then sizes Alpha down, and goes to run the ropes!.....but gets caught with a kick in the back from Nova as he hits them!
Romero tenses up for a moment, before he goes to turn around to strike Nova off of the apron! But Nova ducks under the elbow Romero throws at him, and grabs his head to pull Romero down into the ropes to whiplash his face off of them!
Woodbridge: Romero trying to come back, but the Cardinals sneaky tactics quickly cutting him right back off! Excellent work from Nova!
Romero is sent back from the ropes, holding at his face as he falls to a knee. While we see Alpha beginning to stir from the chop he had just taken. Romero begins to try and rise from his knee, but Alpha runs in with a dropkick to the back of Romero’s head! Forcing him back to the ground!
Alpha then grabs Romero, and does his best to try and bring Romero up, but the significant weight difference makes it a struggle. So instead, he works from the position he has. Dropping Romero and allowing him to hit the mat, before applying a rear chinlock to the larger man.
Paisner And now Alpha trying to ground the big man, wear down Romero. And this can not only take even more energy out of Romero than has also been took, but also drain the morale of Buster to try and get Romero back into it!
Alpha grinds in on the chinlock, getting low to the ground as possible to sink out as much as he can from Romero. Romero tries to power up, but Alpha is quicker, and delivers an elbow strike to the shoulder and neck that drops Romero back to the mat.
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2020.10.17 17:30 Watchdogs66 Our "Drive to 245": The Twenty-Fifth Step (Second Quarter)

The Drive To 245: Deprive the GOP In 25
In 2014 and with 234 House seats, the NRCC launched the “Drive to 245” campaign for the 2014 midterms, which focused on securing 245 seats for the 114th Congress. At the close of the midterms, they ended up picking up 13 seats, putting their new majority to 247 seats, 2 seats above the goal. For the majority of this election cycle, we had at least 234 House seats to start with, until a turncoat in disguise switched to the GOP in December 2019 (get fucked Jeff Van Drew) and we lost one of our districts in a May 2020 special election (get your act together Christy Smith). Despite these setbacks, getting to 245 seats in the next election is possible for us to achieve, if we are smart about it.
In late November 2018, I began by compiling an initial list of 25 potential districts that could give us the necessary gains for us to make the necessary net gain of 10 seats to fulfill our “Drive to 245” campaign goal. I then outlined the state representatives and state senators that we have on our side that live within (or at least represent a good portion of) the identified districts in the second step, which was split into parts one and two. These local officials are often our first line of offense when it comes to selecting appropriate candidates to flip GOP congressional districts, as these people often start out with significant amounts of name recognition (at least compared to most political novices), developed campaign infrastructures, and established donor networks to draw on. In the third step, I explored four different ways that these state representatives and state senators can help promising candidates build a solid platform to flip these 25 districts, even if we are not able to recruit any of these seasoned individuals themselves. I then proceeded to identify every individual local county Democratic organization within in each of these 25 districts to determine how much of a viable network exists towards flipping any of these districts, and whether any of them appear to be fledgling and underfunded, which was split into parts one, two, and three. I then proceeded to draw up rough battle plans to recruit the best candidates that are suitable towards making the necessary gains for the proposed 245 House seats, which I covered in parts one, two, and three. Since then, I updated my list of 25 districts to better reflect the developments that have occurred since November 2018, as well as the candidates from our end that have filed in those districts. After that, I covered updated game plans for the updated 25 districts, which was again split into parts one, two, and three. Another comprehensive update to the list was conducted in early July to account for the GOP retirements, lack of Democratic candidate recruitment for several districts, and other remarkable events that have occurred, all of which have been documented in said update. From there, more detailed plans were made that illustrated the overall status of the Democratic campaigns for each of these districts, which can be found in parts one, two, three, and four. These plans also highlighted which candidates appeared to have the most organized campaigns for each district, and which ones out of these strongest candidates needed the most assistance in terms of fundraising. Donation plans were also made that could sufficiently help out these struggling candidates, if every active user of this subreddit took part. After that, I provided a detailed plan for defending our 5 most endangered Democratic incumbents for this cycle. I next discussed the different methods that volunteers can help out a campaign, and what good campaigns should provide in such activities to optimize their voter outreach effectiveness, both of which can be found in parts one and two. In October 2019, I then provided another comprehensive review of the 25 districts that are the most likely to flip blue and the ideal strategies to accomplish that goal, which can be found in parts one, two, three, and four. After that, I provided an update on the overall status of our top 5 most endangered incumbents, and posted a rescue plan to help out the least financially stable campaigns, both of which can be found in this post. My next step provided day-by-day calendars highlighting volunteer events within the targeted 25 districts that helped participants develop vital Democratic infrastructure in those areas. These calendars, which ran from October 31 to January 15, can be found in parts one, two, three, and four. In late January, I gave a third update on the top 5 incumbents to defend this cycle. At the start of February 2020, I gave a fresh analysis of the 25 districts with the best chances of going blue, which are provided in parts one, two, three, and four. I then jumped to a day-by-day calendar of volunteer events of congressional campaigns operating throughout the 25 districts, which was originally planned to be released in four parts. However, the quickly deteriorating COVID-19 situation has forced this series to be suspended halfway through this step. The two calendars provided in this step, which ran from February 7 to March 19, can be found here and here. In April 2020, I provided an updated study of the 25 districts with the highest chances of flipping as well as the optimal strategies for each of these districts, which was delivered in parts one, two, three, and four. Later in May 2020, I provided another update on the top 5 incumbents to defend this cycle and their performances. I subsequently proceeded in June 2020 to provide a list of the competitive state house and state senate districts that overlapped one of the 30 congressional districts that this series targeted or defended, which was delivered in parts one, two, three, and four. Starting in late July 2020, I provided an updated perspective of the 25 districts with the highest chances of flipping as well as the optimal strategies for each of these districts, all of which were provided in parts one, two, three, and four. Shortly thereafter in August 2020, I provided a fresh update on the campaign status of the top 5 incumbents to defend this cycle. From there, I supplied a fresh view on the status of our campaigns in competitive state house and state senate districts that overlapped one of the 30 congressional districts that was targeted or defended by this series, which was given in parts one, two, three, and four. Next, I provided a calendar highlighting the important dates for the congressional campaigns operating within the 30 districts targeted and defended by this series.
This step will provide a final comprehensive review for each of the 25 districts that this series is targeting in the 2020 elections. As of now, the Democratic nominees have been selected for each target district. This review’s main objective is to gauge the progress of each nominee’s general election campaign. During the months that have transpired from the series’ last comprehensive review, excellent overall progress has been made in the target districts, which currently cover regions located throughout fifteen states. These districts are sorted by state, then ordered by priority, which is roughly based on factors such as whether there is an important up-ballot statewide race (Presidential or Senate) to support, the overall flippability of the districts in question, how soon within the 2020 cycle Democratic organization began within these relevant areas, and the overall quality of the Democratic nominees. Given the overall length of these strategies, this step will be split into four quarters. In the first quarter of this step, game plans were elaborated for districts located in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
This second quarter will go over the best strategies to follow for districts situated in Texas, Ohio, New York, and Virginia. For each district, the nominee’s campaign website, the amount of money he or she has raised so far according to the 2020 Q3 reports, and their campaign donation page will be listed. The fundraising numbers of the GOP opponent and an analysis of the Democratic nominee’s campaign will also be provided.
Some nominees are indicated with a minus or a plus, which indicates the overall quality of their campaign websites according to criteria that was listed in the second half of the eleventh step of this series. If a hash symbol (#) is indicated next to a candidate’s fundraising haul, it means that the figure was taken from the raw 2020 Q3 electronic filings for the candidate’s campaign committee. Fundraising figures from raw filings are not always up to date, meaning that they should be treated with caution. All districts listed on this post have their PVI and the bluest rating given by the political pundits at the time of this writing.
TX-10 (Michael McCaul, R+9, Lean R):
Democratic Nominee: Mike Siegel (+) Fundraising Numbers: $1,953,616 Campaign Website: https://siegelfortexas.org/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/siegel-for-congress
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Michael McCaul: $3,334,483
Mike Siegel is still running behind the GOP incumbent, Michael McCaul, in terms of fundraising. What further complicates things is that Mike Siegel came off of a lengthy runoff that shortened his general election campaign time, leaving him behind Michael McCaul in the latest polls for this district. However, his campaign website is pretty well organized in recruiting volunteers, and he is actively reaching out to help voters that have been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Additionally, we do have some promising signs that the district could flip our way, as recent reports have indicated that Democratic efforts in Colorado County have improved, with the Democratic county party there having secured more footholds and support than it did in August 2019. The priority right now is to improve voter outreach in several high impact counties that the district at least partially covers. For starters, Harris and Travis Counties are critical areas to organize, as both of these counties overlap with multiple districts that are covered in this series. Harris County has covers parts of TX-22, while Travis County covers areas of TX-21, and volunteering in those areas would help us flip multiple districts in Texas for the same amount of effort. Efforts in Lee and Waller Counties should also get some sizable assistance as the local Democratic parties in these areas continue to be underfunded (or at least lacking in the latest web design).
TX-21 (Chip Roy, R+10, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Wendy Davis (+) Fundraising Numbers: $7,809,356 Campaign Website: https://www.wendydavisforcongress.com Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dav_website
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Chip Roy: $4,186,407
Wendy Davis has continued to raise obscene sums of money over the past several months, and is vastly outraising the GOP incumbent Chip Roy. Her website is pretty well organized with respect to recruiting volunteers, and she was a former state senator, so she definitely has gone full speed ahead with her campaign. However, the latest polls for this district show her slightly behind Chip Roy. Still, I am rather keen to see if she can kick out Chip Roy, who definitely needs to go because of his efforts to continuously block various bipartisan efforts such as disaster aid and the coronavirus response bill. Oh, and his stunts that he pulled in the name of supporting the House Freedom Caucus is just horrible. Like TX-10, the district has several high impact counties where we should step up our organization. Bexar and Travis Counties cover regions in TX-23 and TX-10 respectively, making them ideal for improving our odds in multiple districts for the same amount of work. Organization should also focus on Bandera and Real Counties, as the Democratic county party organizations are underfunded and could use some grassroots support.
TX-22 (OPEN, R+10, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Sri Preston Kulkarni (+) Fundraising Numbers: $4,671,339 (#) Campaign Website: https://sri2020.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kulkarniforcongress
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Troy Nehls: $1,343,215
Sri Preston Kulkarni’s campaign is definitely a lot more professional this time around. For one, his website has a well-organized place for potential volunteers to sign up. For another, his campaign is getting volunteers to reach out to voters in over 15 languages, which is really helpful in bringing out the Asian vote at record levels, which is necessary to improve our margins in the Sugar Land area. There is also the fact that the GOP nominee, Troy Nehls, is drained of resources from the expensive runoff, which gives Sri Preston Kulkarni a head start in the general election. And finally, Sri Preston Kulkarni is tied with Troy Nehls in the latest polls for this district. I once again stress the importance of Harris County, as it also covers parts of TX-10, giving us the benefit of improving our chances in flipping two districts for the price of organizing in one county.
TX-23 (OPEN, R+1, Lean D):
Democratic Nominee: Gina Ortiz Jones (-) Fundraising Numbers: $5,754,382 Campaign Website: https://ginaortizjones.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ginaortizjones
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Tony Gonzales: $1,160,880
Gina Ortiz Jones is continuing to raise huge sums of money for her campaign. This is perhaps the easiest pickup on our end for this cycle, if we do not count those from the North Carolina redistricting victories. The main focus for this district is to volunteer and improve our voter outreach as much as possible. Local reports say that infrastructure in El Paso County and Maverick County have improved since January 2019. However, every other county in the district except Bexar County (which should also be focused on to provide additional support for TX-21) and Medina County has an underfunded Democratic county party, meaning that grassroots efforts are heavily needed to revitalize these corresponding areas. An additional factor in our favor is that the GOP nominee, Tony Gonzales, got off of a bloody recount that has drained him of resources and campaign time. As a result of all of this, Gina Ortiz Jones has established a clear lead over Tony Gonzales in the most recent polls for this district. So provided that we can focus our grassroots efforts in the areas where the infrastructure is weak, the district should turn blue this time around.
TX-24 (OPEN, R+9, Lean D):
Democratic Nominee: Candace Valenzuela Fundraising Numbers: $3,561,892 Campaign Website: https://candacefor24.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/cd24
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Beth Van Duyne: $2,648,410
Candace Valenzuela is now significantly outraising the GOP candidate Beth Van Duyne. That in itself is a small yet notable victory, considering that Beth Van Duyne is one of the GOP candidates that the national Republicans are pushing hard for, as she is branding herself as one of the members of the “Conservative Squad”, who was highly touted by Fox News in late 2019. Candace Valenzuela is running neck and neck with Beth Van Duyne, according to the latest polls conducted for this district. Finally, Candace Valenzuela is widely viewed to be on the progressive wing of the Democratic challengers that have been nominated this cycle. All of this means that turning out the Democratic base is the top priority here, as this particular race will be one of the most nationalized congressional elections in this year’s cycle.
OH-01 (Steve Chabot, R+5, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Kate Schroder (-) Fundraising Numbers: $3,173,089 Campaign Website: https://www.kateforcongress.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/k4c-site
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Steve Chabot: $2,717,307
This particular race has significantly moved our way, as Kate Schroder is now outraising the GOP incumbent Steve Chabot. The most recent polls in this district have indicated that the race is now a dead heat. There’s also the fact that Steve Chabot’s former campaign consultant has been under investigation since last year for stealing campaign funds, which has given us more openings for this particular district. However, Kate Schroder’s volunteer page has declined in quality since it now redirects to her campaign’s MoblizeAmerica page, which is far less professional in signing up volunteers, in my opinion. At this point, the main objective for Kate Schroder is to continue to increase her name recognition and inform the electorate about her background, as an early DCCC general election poll indicated that voters were more likely to support Kate Schroder if she did so.
NY-01 (Lee Zeldin, R+5, Lean R):
Democratic Nominee: Nancy Goroff (+) Fundraising Numbers: $5,400,156 Campaign Website: https://www.goroffforcongress.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/goroff-website
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Lee Zeldin: $7,065,195
This district is certainly going to be very expensive to compete in, as Nancy Goroff has raised a very sizable seven-figure sum. However, she is still behind the GOP incumbent, Lee Zeldin, by over $1.7 million in fundraising, although that gap has slightly closed since the last comprehensive review. Recent polls suggest that Lee Zeldin still has a clear advantage, although it is certainly in the single digits. Local reports say that the Democrats in that particular district have quickly united against Lee Zeldin and directed appropriate support and voter outreach in the areas that are receptive to Nancy Goroff’s messaging. Nancy Goroff’s volunteer page has also improved over the past several months, as it now includes a space listing specific activities that potential volunteers can choose to engage in. Suffolk County is a very important county to concentrate voter outreach efforts on, as it overlaps with NY-02.
NY-02 (OPEN, R+3, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Jacqueline Gordon Fundraising Numbers: $3,550,230 Campaign Website: https://jackiegordonforcongress.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jackiegordonsite
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Andrew Garbarino: $1,260,624
This race has a surprisingly high victory potential for us. Jacqueline Gordon has a lot of potential as a Babylon Town Councilmember, a veteran, and a woman of color, meaning that she possesses a strong ability to turn out the minority vote as well as well-established political connections. Her GOP opponent, Andrew Garbarino, is experienced some slight delays in getting his campaign off the ground due to his state Assembly duties as well as some coordination issues with Peter King, the district’s current (and retiring) GOP incumbent. Garbarino’s kickoff did not start until August, which gave us a slight head start in making our case to the district’s voters. Another advantage that we have is that Jacqueline Gordon is currently blowing away Andrew Garbarino in the fundraising department. However, her campaign volunteer page has slightly deteriorated over the past several months, as it connects potential volunteers to her MoblizeAmerica page, which is less efficient in signing up potential volunteers, in my opinion. I would like to repeat the emphasis that efforts should be made to organize in Suffolk County, since that county also covers parts of NY-01.
NY-24 (John Katko, D+3, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Dana Balter Fundraising Numbers: $2,443,168 Campaign Website: https://electdanabalter.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/balter-website
GOP Fundraising Numbers: John Katko: $3,329,771
Dana Balter is still being outraised by the GOP incumbent, John Katko, although the cumulative fundraising gap has slightly closed since the series’ last comprehensive review. The volunteer page on her campaign website has also slightly deteriorated since then, as it also now connects to a customized MobilizeAmerica webpage, which is less efficient in signing up potential volunteers, in my opinion. However, Democratic internal polling shows that Dana Balter is currently running close with John Katko. In this particular Democrat-leaning district, voter persuasion is going to be very important, as there are thousands of voters in this district who are currently plan to split the ticket between Joe Biden and John Katko in November. This finding, which has been confirmed in several polls conducted for this district, means that we should focus our voter persuasion efforts in Auburn, Syracuse, and Skaneateles, as that is where most of these split-ticket voters are located in. Additional outreach efforts should also be concentrated on strengthening our base in Cayuga County, as the local Democratic party there is relatively weak in funding.
VA-05 (OPEN, R+6, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Bryant Cameron Webb (+) Fundraising Numbers: $4,077,969 Campaign Website: https://www.drcameronwebb.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/cameronwebb
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Robert Good: $984,809
Oh boy, has this race quickly received a lot of recent attention, as all of the stars seem to be aligning in this particular race. First of all, there is a divided GOP electorate from the nominating convention that ejected the district’s incumbent, Denver Riggleman, from the nomination. Next, Bryant Cameron Webb has some serious potential of supercharging the minority vote in Charlottesville and Albemarle County. Then, Robert Good, the GOP candidate, is at a serious disadvantage when it comes to fundraising, as his cumulative fundraising figures remain much lower than Bryant Cameron Webb’s are. Also, the most recent polling for this district indicates that Bryant Cameron Webb is running very close to Robert Good. Finally, recent reports say that the Democratic infrastructure in Appomattox and Campbell Counties have improved since January 2019. Our primary goal in this district should be to increase our voter outreach efforts, as quite a few Democratic county parties are underfunded and in need of grassroots support. These counties are Brunswick, Buckingham, Cumberland, Danville City, Halifax, Lunenburg, and Prince Edward Counties. Needless to say, there is a lot of work cut out for us to flip a solid red district that voted for Corey Stewart in 2018.
And thus we come the end of this step’s second quarter. The third quarter will describe ideal procedures for flipping target districts in Illinois, Florida, Indiana, and California. After that, the final quarter will cover optimized tactics for districts within New Jersey, Colorado, Nebraska, and Montana. So stay tuned! Any corrections or comments are welcome.
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2020.10.17 01:33 Watchdogs66 Our "Drive to 245": The Twenty-Fifth Step (First Quarter)

The Drive To 245: Deprive the GOP In 25
In 2014 and with 234 House seats, the NRCC launched the “Drive to 245” campaign for the 2014 midterms, which focused on securing 245 seats for the 114th Congress. At the close of the midterms, they ended up picking up 13 seats, putting their new majority to 247 seats, 2 seats above the goal. For the majority of this election cycle, we had at least 234 House seats to start with, until a turncoat in disguise switched to the GOP in December 2019 (get fucked Jeff Van Drew) and we lost one of our districts in a May 2020 special election (get your act together Christy Smith). Despite these setbacks, getting to 245 seats in the next election is possible for us to achieve, if we are smart about it.
In late November 2018, I began by compiling an initial list of 25 potential districts that could give us the necessary gains for us to make the necessary net gain of 10 seats to fulfill our “Drive to 245” campaign goal. I then outlined the state representatives and state senators that we have on our side that live within (or at least represent a good portion of) the identified districts in the second step, which was split into parts one and two. These local officials are often our first line of offense when it comes to selecting appropriate candidates to flip GOP congressional districts, as these people often start out with significant amounts of name recognition (at least compared to most political novices), developed campaign infrastructures, and established donor networks to draw on. In the third step, I explored four different ways that these state representatives and state senators can help promising candidates build a solid platform to flip these 25 districts, even if we are not able to recruit any of these seasoned individuals themselves. I then proceeded to identify every individual local county Democratic organization within in each of these 25 districts to determine how much of a viable network exists towards flipping any of these districts, and whether any of them appear to be fledgling and underfunded, which was split into parts one, two, and three. I then proceeded to draw up rough battle plans to recruit the best candidates that are suitable towards making the necessary gains for the proposed 245 House seats, which I covered in parts one, two, and three. Since then, I updated my list of 25 districts to better reflect the developments that have occurred since November 2018, as well as the candidates from our end that have filed in those districts. After that, I covered updated game plans for the updated 25 districts, which was again split into parts one, two, and three. Another comprehensive update to the list was conducted in early July to account for the GOP retirements, lack of Democratic candidate recruitment for several districts, and other remarkable events that have occurred, all of which have been documented in said update. From there, more detailed plans were made that illustrated the overall status of the Democratic campaigns for each of these districts, which can be found in parts one, two, three, and four. These plans also highlighted which candidates appeared to have the most organized campaigns for each district, and which ones out of these strongest candidates needed the most assistance in terms of fundraising. Donation plans were also made that could sufficiently help out these struggling candidates, if every active user of this subreddit took part. After that, I provided a detailed plan for defending our 5 most endangered Democratic incumbents for this cycle. I next discussed the different methods that volunteers can help out a campaign, and what good campaigns should provide in such activities to optimize their voter outreach effectiveness, both of which can be found in parts one and two. In October 2019, I then provided another comprehensive review of the 25 districts that are the most likely to flip blue and the ideal strategies to accomplish that goal, which can be found in parts one, two, three, and four. After that, I provided an update on the overall status of our top 5 most endangered incumbents, and posted a rescue plan to help out the least financially stable campaigns, both of which can be found in this post. My next step provided day-by-day calendars highlighting volunteer events within the targeted 25 districts that helped participants develop vital Democratic infrastructure in those areas. These calendars, which ran from October 31 to January 15, can be found in parts one, two, three, and four. In late January, I gave a third update on the top 5 incumbents to defend this cycle. At the start of February 2020, I gave a fresh analysis of the 25 districts with the best chances of going blue, which are provided in parts one, two, three, and four. I then jumped to a day-by-day calendar of volunteer events of congressional campaigns operating throughout the 25 districts, which was originally planned to be released in four parts. However, the quickly deteriorating COVID-19 situation has forced this series to be suspended halfway through this step. The two calendars provided in this step, which ran from February 7 to March 19, can be found here and here. In April 2020, I provided an updated study of the 25 districts with the highest chances of flipping as well as the optimal strategies for each of these districts, which was delivered in parts one, two, three, and four. Later in May 2020, I provided another update on the top 5 incumbents to defend this cycle and their performances. I subsequently proceeded in June 2020 to provide a list of the competitive state house and state senate districts that overlapped one of the 30 congressional districts that this series targeted or defended, which was delivered in parts one, two, three, and four. Starting in late July 2020, I provided an updated perspective of the 25 districts with the highest chances of flipping as well as the optimal strategies for each of these districts, all of which were provided in parts one, two, three, and four. Shortly thereafter in August 2020, I provided a fresh update on the campaign status of the top 5 incumbents to defend this cycle. From there, I supplied a fresh view on the status of our campaigns in competitive state house and state senate districts that overlapped one of the 30 congressional districts that was targeted or defended by this series, which was given in parts one, two, three, and four. Next, I provided a calendar highlighting the important dates for the congressional campaigns operating within the 30 districts targeted and defended by this series.
This step will provide a final comprehensive review for each of the 25 districts that this series is targeting in the 2020 elections. As of now, the Democratic nominees have been selected for each target district. This review’s main objective is to gauge the progress of each nominee’s general election campaign.
Before this step proceeds to the official review, however, an important change to the list of 25 targeted districts will be announced, as well as the reasoning. Back in the beginning of the sixteenth step of this series, I announced that there would be no further changes to the list of target districts. The one exception that I gave to that statement was if any of the eventual Democratic nominees were found to have a serious scandal. This was fortunately not the case for any of the nominees running in the districts targeted in this series. The reasoning behind the announcement was that there was very little time to get newly added districts up to speed with the needed information, infrastructure, and grassroots support to provide them with realistic chances of success. I believed that my “expertise” would be better served by further expanding the knowledge that I have acquired in these 25 districts, as the great majority of the gains that are needed to get to 245 House seats in January 2021 would come from these districts.
However, several unique circumstances have occurred since then which have compelled me to make an exception to this announcement, which I will explain in the below sections. As with previous instances where changes to the target list were made, I've maintained the number of districts to a constant 25 to keep to the mnemonic listed in the title.
No longer on the list:
TX-31 (John Carter, R+10, Likely R): The Democratic nominee, Donna Imam, has posted some very lackluster fundraising numbers, with her total fundraising haul currently at $762,706. All of the other Democratic nominees in this series have cumulatively raised solid seven figure sums, which is generally the baseline for a winning congressional campaign to achieve. Several reports that I consulted have revealed that Donna Imam’s campaign is exceedingly disorganized. The infrastructure that MJ Hegar built in her 2018 run there is not getting translated to Donna Imam, since the Senate race against John Cornyn is getting all of the political oxygen there. Also, several Democratic operatives in TX-31 are frustrated with Donna Imam’s erratic campaign decisions, lack of steady communication channels, and inconsistent messaging. They have complained about the campaign’s substandard voter outreach efforts, social media handling, and participation in key local organizations. Several of them have decided to triage this district and take their efforts to TX-10 and TX-21. The district that I will be adding to replace TX-31 needs more of our attention and support at present at once, and I do not think that there will be too many objections to this late change.
New districts added to the list:
CA-25 (Mike Garcia, EVEN, Tossup): There has been a lot of criticism and frustration directed at Christy Smith, the Democratic nominee for this district, as well as the Los Angeles County Democrats and Ventura County Democrats for their poor organizational efforts. I provided a litany of the mistakes which were made in the special election, and caused us to lose a ton a momentum that we painstakingly built since the 2018 midterm elections. Unfortunately, several months of deep diving in this district have revealed that not all of these problems have been resolved as of now. Christy Smith is viewed as damaged goods among a good number of Democratic donors and operatives because of the magnitude of her loss in a district that went for Clinton by 6.7 points in 2016. She was significantly outraised by Mike Garcia in the quarterly reports that have been released since the special election, and the local organizational groups, especially the Los Angeles County Democrats and the Ventura County Democrats, are still operating at substandard levels. Because of all of this, Christy Smith is still running behind Mike Garcia in the polls. Unless Christy Smith receives additional assistance and coordination, which adding this district to the series’ target list will help provide, we will lose this district in November as well.
So now that the change to the list has been announced and explained, this step will now begin the final comprehensive review for the 25 districts that are currently on this series’ target list. During the months that have transpired from the series’ last comprehensive review, excellent overall progress has been made in the target districts, which currently cover regions located throughout fifteen states. These districts are sorted by state, then ordered by priority, which is roughly based on factors such as whether there is an important up-ballot statewide race (Presidential or Senate) to support, the overall flippability of the districts in question, how soon within the 2020 cycle Democratic organization began within these relevant areas, and the overall quality of the Democratic nominees. Given the overall length of these strategies, this step will be split into four quarters.
In the first quarter of this step, game plans will be elaborated for districts located in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. For each district, the nominee’s campaign website, the amount of money he or she has raised so far according to the 2020 Q3 reports, and their campaign donation page will be listed. The fundraising numbers of the GOP opponent and an analysis of the Democratic nominee’s campaign will also be provided.
Some nominees are indicated with a minus or a plus, which indicates the overall quality of their campaign websites according to criteria that was listed in the second half of the eleventh step of this series. If a hash symbol (#) is indicated next to a candidate’s fundraising haul, it means that the figure was taken from the raw 2020 Q3 electronic filings for the candidate’s campaign committee. Fundraising figures from raw filings are not always up to date, meaning that they should be treated with caution. All districts listed on this post have their PVI and the bluest rating given by the political pundits at the time of this writing.
GA-07 (OPEN, R+9, Lean D):
Democratic Nominee: Carolyn Bourdeaux (+) Fundraising Numbers: $4,169,721 Campaign Website: https://www.carolyn4congress.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/carolyn_website
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Richard McCormick: $2,168,122
Carolyn Bourdeaux continues to raise an impressive amount of money for her second run and is very well-positioned to flip the district. Her website is also well organized with respect to recruiting volunteers, especially for those wishing to participate in canvassing and phone banks. The most recent polling shows Carolyn Bourdeaux slightly leading in the polls against her opponent, Richard McCormick, which is another good sign. This district is an important one for us, since it is not only one of our most likely pick-ups, but also helps boosts Democratic turnout up the ballot for the two Senate races that are taking place this cycle, as well as helping us put Georgia in the presidential blue column for the first time since 1992!
MI-03 (OPEN, R+6, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Hillary Scholten (+) Fundraising Numbers: $2,510,892 Campaign Website: https://www.hillaryscholten.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/helphillary
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Peter Meijer: $2,664,444 (#)
Hillary Scholten is definitely getting some serious fundraising strength and has continued to build up momentum over the past several months. Her campaign is up to the point that it can be truly competitive with that of her GOP opponent, Peter Meijer, although she is currently trailing him in the latest polling. Definitely consider supporting Hillary Scholten’s campaign, as we need the turnout boost from a traditionally conservative area to help improve our chance of winning the Presidential and Senate races there. Organizational efforts should concentrate towards Ionia and Montcalm Counties, as the local Democratic Party counties there are underfunded and could use some support from the grassroots.
MI-06 (Fred Upton, R+4, Lean R):
Democratic Nominee: Jon Hoadley (+) Fundraising Numbers: $2,425,505 Campaign Website: https://jonhoadley.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/website-form
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Fred Upton: $3,028,491 (#)
Jon Hoadley is a fairly good candidate, as he is a current State Representative and has posted solid fundraising numbers. He also has a very well designed website for attracting and recruiting volunteers. However, his ground game, get-out-the-vote operations, and name recognition still needs work, as his performance in the Democratic primary was rather underwhelming. He is also trailing the GOP incumbent for this district, Fred Upton, by a considerable amount in the latest polls. According to recent reports, Democratic efforts in St. Joseph County have improved, with the Democratic county party there being much more funded and developed than it was in December 2018. This is a good thing, as we need every boost that we can get in Michigan for the Presidential and Senate races there.
PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick, R+1, Lean R):
Democratic Nominee: Christina Finello (+) Fundraising Numbers: $1,425,176 Campaign Website: https://www.finelloforcongress.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/christina-finello
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Brian Fitzpatrick: $3,780,911 (#)
We are working behind the eight ball for this district due to the chaos of several Democratic candidates dropping out of the race earlier in the cycle. Christina Finello’s main disadvantage in her campaign against the GOP incumbent, Brian Fitzpatrick, is of course the fundraising gap. Fortunately, Christina Finello’s campaign has narrowed the gap in the past several months, as it managed to outraise Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign in the Q3 period. However, she is still trailing Brian Fitzpatrick by a noticable margin in the latest polls. Adding to the district’s strategic importance is that PA-01 is located in a crucial area for turning Pennsylvania back to blue in the 2020 presidential election.
PA-10 (Scott Perry, R+6, Tossup):
Democratic Nominee: Eugene DePasquale (+) Fundraising Numbers: $3,345,492 Campaign Website: https://eugeneforcongress.com/ Donation Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/depasquale-for-pa-1
GOP Fundraising Numbers: Scott Perry: $3,237,416 (#)
The Democratic nominee, Eugene DePasquale, is now leading the GOP incumbent, Scott Perry, in the cumulative fundraising and the polling departments. In order for this district to get to the Lean D category (which I believe that it has a real shot of reaching by the end of this month), Eugene DePasquale needs to ramp up volunteer efforts in Dauphin County, as that is where he posted his weakest numbers in the June primary. Another reason why PA-10 should be front and center of our radars is that the district itself another crucial area that we need to close the GOP margins in order to turn Pennsylvania back to blue in 2020.
And thus we come the end of this step's first quarter. The second quarter will go over the best strategies to follow for districts situated in Texas, Ohio, New York, and Virginia. Then, the third quarter will describe ideal procedures for flipping target districts in Illinois, Florida, Indiana, and California. After that, the final quarter will cover optimized tactics for districts within New Jersey, Colorado, Nebraska, and Montana. So stay tuned! Any corrections or comments are welcome.
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2020.10.13 13:06 StevenStevens43 King Art Oenfer VI

King Art Oenfer VI
King Art Oenfer VI:
This, is another King Art Oenfer article.
It is King Art Oenfer VI.
However as King Art Oenfer is becoming part of a series, it would be silly to read the fifth part before reading the first, second, third & forth part, in that order.
So i will leave the link below for the previous articles, you can read them, then come back and read this one.
King Art Oenfer & Son - Part one
Gallus the Mac - Part two
King Art Oenfer III & The barbarica conspiriatio - Part three
King Art Oenfer V & IV - Part four
Link for photo
King Arthur
Constantine & Constans.
So, i will begin this article like a i begin a lot of articles, and that is investigating the claims made in British legends, and in particular, Geoffrey of Monmouth.
I will also be investigating the criticisms against Geoffrey of Monmouth's work, and attempting to establish whether those criticisms are constructive, or whether or not they expose the ignorance of certain modern day scholars and historians.
I will begin with a character named Ambrosius Aurelianus.
He is supposed to be a king of Britain that gets involved with another king of Britain, named Vortigern, whom has been covered in previous articles.
According to Geoffrey, Ambrosius Aurelianus is the son of Constantine.
The constantines will require no introduction, as the link between the Art Oenfer and the Constantines has been well and truly established in the previous Art Oenfer articles.
But for those that skipped the previous articles, then you will just have to take my word for it, that the Constantine family would now appear to be very much favourites for being the family behind "thee" actual alleged King Arthur, when we finally get there.
But we are not there yet.
Now, i will begin by pointing out modern day historians and scholars first dig at the slightly "gargled" Geoffrey of Monmouth.
Let us not forget, we are paying historians to research and report accurate non opinionated history, not to be grammar students.
Is two seperate things.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
Ambrosius Aurelianus appears in later pseudo-chronicle tradition beginning with Geoffrey of Monmouth's Historia Regum Britanniae with the slightly garbled name Aurelius Ambrosius, now presented as son of a King Constantine. King Constantine's eldest son Constans is murdered at Vortigern's instigation,
Link for photo#/media/File:Constantineiii.jpg)
Constantine III coin
So, was this Ambrosius Aurelianus mentioned in any official accounts, outside of those considered legendary.
The answer is in fact, yes.
In the accounts of Saint Germanus, there was a cleric named Constantius, and Constantius would most likely be the son of Constantine III, just like Geoffrey's Ambrosius Aurelianus.
Visit to Britain
Constantius also recounts the miraculous healing of the blind daughter of 'a man with tribunician power'.[2] This use of the word tribune may imply the existence of some form of post-Roman government system. However, in Constantius' lifetime tribune had acquired a looser definition, and often was used to indicate any military officer, whether part of the Imperial army or part of a town militia.
Germanus led the native Britons to a victory against Pictish and Saxon raiders, at a mountainous site near a river, of which Mold in North Wales is the traditional location.
Link for photo
Saint Germanus
Saint Germanus:
To find out why Saint Germanus is in Britain fighting a war during this period, please see this article below, and then come back and read this one, as i will not have enough room in this article to go over already covered ground.
The confessio of Saint Palladius <<<<< Link for article
Link for photo-_stained_glass,_Saint_Patrick-_detail.jpg)
Saint Patrick
Constantius of Lyon:
Now Constantius of Lyon was of very high standing and was very much a church leader.
Constantius of Lyon
Constantius of Lyon (fl. c. AD 480) was a cleric from what is now the Auvergne) in modern-day France, who wrote the Vita Germani, or Life of Germanus, a hagiography of Germanus of Auxerre. The hagiography was written some time during the second half of the fifth century, and was commissioned by Patiens, bishop of Lyon.[1]
Constantius was a friend of Bishop Lupus of Troyes and Sidonius Apollinaris, with whom he corresponded, and several letters from them are included in his published letter-collection.
Antipope Felix II:
And the Constantines have been held in high regard by the church ever since Constantine the Great issued the edict of Milan, and Constantinius II banished one Pope and installed another.
Antipope Felix II
Antipope Felix, an archdeacon of Rome, was installed as Pope in AD 355 after the Emperor Constantius II banished the reigning Pope, Liberius, for refusing to subscribe to a sentence of condemnation against Saint Athanasius.[1]
And Ambrosius Aurelianus was thought by Gildas, to be very much a church person.
His parents wore the purple.
According to Gildas
a gentleman who, perhaps alone of the Romans, had survived the shock of this notable storm. Certainly his parents, who had worn the purple, were slain in it. His descendants in our day have become greatly inferior to their grandfather's [avita] excellence. Under him our people regained their strength, and challenged the victors to battle. The Lord assented, and the battle went their way.[3]
Aristocratic robe:
And wearing purple is thought to have been a sign of high aristocracy.
During this era, Roman emperors and Church leaders, wore purple robes.
Scholarship questions
Roman emperors and male Patricians) wore clothes with a purple band to denote their class so the reference to purple may be to an aristocratic heritage.
Ambriosius family:
Now that i have cleared up that Constantinius is an elite church leader, i will tackle the first criticism of Geoffrey of Monmouth.
Apparently Geoffrey of Monmouth's claim that Ambrosius and Uther were hustled into exile in Brittany after the death of their parents, does not fit with the account of modern day historians and scholars choice of reliable historian.
Which is Gildas.
However, you just have to look at the quote above marked "according to Gildas", to see that Gildas speaks of Ambrosius Aurelianus's parents being slain.
Though he definitely appears to believe that Ambrosius Aurelianus survived.
So what the modern day historians and scholars have to say in the quote below, could be considered by some a black lie.
Perhaps an error, by others.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
King Constantine's eldest son Constans is murdered at Vortigern's instigation, and the two remaining sons (Ambrosius and Uther, still very young) are quickly hustled into exile in Brittany. (This does not fit with Gildas' account, in which Ambrosius' family perished in the turmoil of the Saxon uprisings.)
Constantine III:
And we already know that it is a fact that in 411 AD, Constantine III was executed.
Surrender and execution#Surrender_and_execution)
Constantius imprisoned the former soldier and had him beheaded on his way to Ravenna[citation needed] in either August or September 411.[25]#citenote-25) His head, on a pole, was presented to Emperor Honorius on 18 September. It was later displayed outside Carthage.[[26]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantine_III(Western_Roman_Emperor)#cite_note-26)
Constans II:
And one of Constantine III's sons, was indeed executed by the historical Gerontius.
Thus, the Constantines being partly massacred is consistant with contemporary history.
[6]#citenote-constans2-6) With the support of the barbarians, Gerontius took over Constantine's territory; in 411, he captured the city of Vienne and put Constans to death.[[8]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constans_II(son_of_Constantine_III)#cite_note-8)
Link for photo#/media/File:Siliqua_Constans_II_Arelate.jpg)
Constans II coin
The Groans of Britain:
Now, in the quote below, Geoffrey is once again accused of Contradicting Gildas, who is alleged to have placed the Groans of Britain to a date between 440 AD and 450 AD, which contradicts Geoffrey's claim that Ambrosius could possible have been the son of a Constantine III that died 30 or 40 years before the Groans took place.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
The chronology offered by Geoffrey for the early life of Ambrosius contradicts Gildas and Nennius, and is also internally inconsistent.[16] The Groans of the Britons involves an appeal by the Britons to Roman consul "Agitius". This person has been identified with Flavius Aetius (d. 454), magister militum ("master of soldiers") of the Western Roman Empire and consul of the year 446. The Groans are generally dated to the 440s and 450s, preceding the death of Aetius. If Geoffrey's Constantine rose to the throne immediately following the Groans, this would place his reign in this period.[16]
Gemitus Britannorum:
So let us first look at what the Groans of Britain are.
But, i will just say first, whilst i am not going to look into it, i actually do not believe that Gildas even said this.
If he did, then he is the worst historian the world ever saw.
Quite simply, the Groans of Britain was a plee made by Britons to Rome for foreign aid after they were abandoned by Constantine III who had withdrawn the British military in order to attack and sack Rome between 407 AD and 410 AD.
The usurper Constantine III) had taken the last Roman troops from Britain in 407 and the civilian administration had been expelled by the natives a little later, leaving the inhabitants to fend for themselves during increasingly fraught times. Parts of the plea were recorded:[5]
410 AD:
This plee was made, and refused, in 410 AD, when Roman emperor Honorius decided to release Britain from roman rule, in order to reduce the amount of foreign aid he had to dish out, during the war.
I think modern historians and scholars get mixed up with when the story was written, with when the happenings the story is talking about, actually happened.
Is quite a common error i think.
Though amateurish, all the same.
Defence of Italy#Stilicho_and_the_defense_of_Italy)
The situation in Britain was even more difficult. The British provinces were isolated, lacking support from the Empire, and the soldiers supported the revolts of Marcus) (406–407), Gratian) (407), and Constantine III). Constantine invaded Gaul in 407, occupying Arles, and while Constantine was in Gaul, his son Constans) ruled over Britain.[14]#citenote-Bury,_pg._111-14) By 410, Britain was effectively told to look after its own affairs and expect no aid from Rome.[[15]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honorius(emperor)#cite_note-15)
Link for photo#/media/File:JohnWilliam_Waterhouse-The_Favorites_of_the_Emperor_Honorius-_1883.jpg)
Honorius during the famine
Geoffrey claimed:
Now, it simply continues to get "absolutely frightening".
The historians and scholars, based upon their own error, continue to narrate like it is a fact that Geoffrey states that Ambrosius Aurelianus was still in his infancy in the 460's AD.
This error is due to the fact that they have wrong dated the groans of Britain.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
.[16] Geoffrey's narrative has an underage Ambrosius, if not a literal infant, in the 460s. Accounts deriving from Gildas and Nennius place Ambrosius in the prime of his life in the same decade.[16]
Octa of Kent:
Contemporary historians and scholars continue to play on what they bagan with their own amateurish error regards to the groans of britain, and they point out that Geoffrey involves in the story of Ambrosius, a "6th century" British king... lol
Geoffrey of Monmouth
[16] Henginst's supposed son Octa is apparently Octa of Kent, a 6th-century ruler variously connected to Hengist as a son or descendant.
However, there is no lol about it.
It is quite contemporary that Octa was a 5th/6th century king, who is believed to have been quite possible the son of Hengist.
Therefore Hengist could easily have been part of the wars fought against Ambriosus in the 440's or 450's.
Ambrosius, even in Geoffreys accounts, were the Groans of Britain happened between 407 AD and 410 AD, would be well in his prime come the 440's.
And, i also assume if Octa ruled from 512 AD, then he was likely born sometime in the late 400's, (5th Century).
Octa of Kent
Octa (or Octha) (c. 500 – 543) was an Anglo-Saxon King of Kent during the 6th century. Sources disagree on his relationship to the other kings in his line; he may have been the son of Hengist or Oisc, and may have been the father of Oisc or Eormenric. The dates of his reign are unclear, but he may have ruled from 512 to 534
Next, modern day historians continue to attempt to make a mockery of Geoffrey, by naturally assuming that when Geoffrey talks about a character named Cheldric, he is talking about Cerdic of Wessex.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
A minor Saxon character called "Cherdic" is probably Cerdic of Wessex, though elsewhere Geoffrey calls the same king "Cheldric".
Link for photo
Cerdic of Wessex in his purple robe
Cedric of Wessex:
But, even though Cerdic of Wessex would appear to be related to aristocrats with his purple robe, why on earth would scholars think that Geoffrey, who is talking about a period of between 411 AD and 455 AD approximately, would be referring to Cedric of Wessex from 519 AD?
Cerdic of Wessex
Cerdic (/ˈtʃɜːrdɪtʃ/; Latin: Cerdicus) is cited in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle as a leader of the Anglo-Saxon settlement of Britain, being the founder and first king of Saxon Wessex, reigning from 519 to 534 AD
Childeric I:
Quite simply, it is not a rational conclusion.
A far more likely conclusion, would be a likely ancestor of Cedric's from 437 AD.
Childeric I.
Childeric was the Frankish leader of Roman Gaul.
Childeric I
Childeric I (/ˈkɪldərɪk/; French: Childéric; Latin: Childericus; reconstructed Frankish: \Hildirīk*;[4] c. 437 – 481 AD) was a Frankish leader in the northern part of imperial Roman Gaul
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Childeric I
Clovis I:
And Childrec I, is the father of Clovis I, who like his father, ruled over the Frankish kingdom, and also other parts of Roman Gaul.
And Clovis I also was married to a saint and was one of the earliest known Catholics.
Clovis I
Clovis is also significant due to his conversion to Catholicism in 496, largely at the behest of his wife, Clotilde, who would later be venerated as a saint for this act, celebrated today in both the Roman Catholic Church and Eastern Orthodox Church. Clovis was baptized on Christmas Day in 508.[5] The adoption by Clovis of Catholicism (as opposed to the Arianism of most other Germanic tribes)
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Clovis I
Roman Gaul:
And these people were rulers of Roman Gaul, which during the time of Roman occupation, and slightly after it, included Southern Britain.
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Roman Gaul
Next, the famous Merlin, that myth debunkers love to use as the classic mythological character.
Yet, reputable historians and scholars, commenting on history "should" know exactly who Merlin is.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
.[16] Vortigern's encounter with Emrys/Merlin takes place in this part of the narrative. Merlin warns Vortigern that Ambrosius and Uther have already sailed for Britain and are soon to arrive, apparently to claim his throne.
And this mythological Merlin, is quite obviously Merovech, grandfather of Clovis I, and the founder of the Merovingian dynasty.
Merovech (French: Mérovée, Merowig; Latin: Meroveus; c. 411 – 458)[1] is the semi-legendary founder of the Merovingian dynasty of the Salian Franks, which later became the dominant Frankish tribe. He is proposed to be one of several barbarian warlords and kings that joined forces with the Roman general Aetius against the Huns under Attila at the Battle of the Catalaunian Plains in Gaul in 451. His grand-son Clovis I became the founder of the Frankish kingdom.
Link for photo
Death of Vortigern:
Now the next mythological claim from Geoffrey, is that Constantius/Ambrosius/Art Oenfer VI, defeated Vortigern in battle.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
Ambrosius soon arrives at the head of the army and is crowned king. He besieges Vortigern at the castle of "Genoreu", which is identified with Nennius' Cair Guorthigirn ("Fort Vortigern") and the hillfort at Little Doward. Ambrosius burns the castle down and Vortigern dies with it.[16]
Pope Celestine I:
So is there any proof for those battles?
Well, yes, plenty.
To begin with, those people were in Britain fighting the heresy of Arianism, which was known as Pelagianism during this period, and it had swept the shores of Britain and Ireland after the 410 AD removal of the Roman empire from British shores, and Roman aristocrats were desperately trying to keep a hold of somekind of power in a devolving Britain.
Pope Celestine I
Pope Celestine I (Latin: Caelestinus I) was the bishop of Rome from 10 September 422 to his death on 1 August 432. Celestine's tenure was largely spent combatting various ideologies deemed heretical. He supported the mission of the Gallic bishops that sent Germanus of Auxerre in 429, to Britain to address Pelagianism, and later commissioned Palladius) as bishop to the Scots of Ireland and northern Britain. In 430,
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Merovingian symbol
However, these elite Catholic leaders were not in Britain conducting a simple conversion.
They were fighting a brutal war, using military troops and forces, and they were also not just church leaders, but also kings, seeking more kingdoms for both their Churches, and kingships.
Visit to Britain
However, in Constantius' lifetime tribune had acquired a looser definition, and often was used to indicate any military officer, whether part of the Imperial army or part of a town militia.
Germanus led the native Britons to a victory against Pictish and Saxon raiders, at a mountainous site near a river, of which Mold in North Wales is the traditional location.
Link for photo
Germanus of Auxerre
Next, having killed Vortigern, Ambrosius/Constantinius/Art Oenfer turns his attention to the next Saxon leader, and apparently with only 10,000 men, defeats a Saxon army of 200,000.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
Having killed Vortigern, Ambrosius next turns his attention to Hengist. Despite the fact that no earlier military actions of Ambrosius are recorded, the Saxons have already heard of his bravery and battle prowess. They immediately retreat beyond the Humber.[16] Hengist soon amasses a massive army to face Ambrosius. His army counts 200,000 men and Ambrosius' only 10,000 men.
The debate:
So, is there any truth in this?
Well, whilst there are no records of numbers, there was a war fought against saxons that resulted in apparently another victory for the up and coming Merovingians.
Saint Germanus referred to it as "the debate".
Germanus and the cult of Saint Alban
Immediately after the debate with the Pelagians, Germanus gave thanks for his victory at the grave of Saint Alban,
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Saint Alban
The field of Beli:
Now, Geoffrey, who appears to get his history from not only British accounts, but also foreign accounts, is again being rather unprofessional when he leaves modern day scholars and historians endlessly speculating where the field of Beli in Southern Britain could have been.
Was it Hatfield? Was it Wales? et cetera.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
He marches south and the first battle between the two armies takes place in Maisbeli, where Ambrosius emerges the victor. It is unclear what location Geoffrey had in mind. Maisbeli translates to "the field of Beli"
However if you look at the map below, you can see exactly were Belgae was.
Link for photo
Finally, the Saxons surrender, and they are pardoned by Amriosius/Constantinius/Art Oenfer VI, and they are relocated to the North east.
Modern historians and scholars speculate that this could be Bernicia, because Bernicia was settled by Angles in the 6th Century.
However, we are still only in the 5th Century.
The Catholics defeated the Pelagians, and Geoffrey speaks of Ambrosius assigning Merovech with a task of establishing a permanent memorial for the dead soldiers, and the site is called "the Giants ring".
But silly Geoffrey forgets that by the year 2000 Historians and scholars will not know where the giants ring is, and will declare it pseudo nonsense.
Though, most, will speculate that it is stonehenge.
Even though, right down the road from stonehenge, is the largest stone circle in Europe.
Geoffrey of Monmouth
Following his victories and the end of the wars, Ambrosius organises the burial of killed nobles at Kaercaradduc. Geoffrey identifies this otherwise unknown location with Caer-Caradog (Salisbury). Ambrosius wants a permanent memorial for the slain and assigns the task to Merlin. The result is the so-called Giants' Ring.[16] Its location in the vicinity of Salisbury has led to its identification with Stonehenge, though Geoffrey never uses that term. Stonehenge is closer to Amesbury than Salisbury. The ring formation of the monument could equally apply to Avebury, the largest stone circle in Europe.[16]
Link for photo,Wiltshire,_UK-_Diliff.jpg)
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2020.10.10 01:43 artistique1 [R&D] US Directed Energy Weapons Updates

United States Department of Defence
The Pentagon, Arlington, Virginia, United States
United States Directed Energy Weapon Programme Updates
Directed energy weapons continue to be one of the forefronts of US research and design through into the 2020s as the applications of them for defence against aircraft, missiles, and more makes them invaluable for the future battlefield as defence against physical interceptors rapidly increase.
Following on from a congressional request for programme updates from the DoD, the Pentagon has prepared this list of current in-development weapons.
F-35 Block 5 - ABC System
The Aero-Adaptive, Aero-Optic Beam Control, also known as ABC, continues to overcome design hurdles. The ABC itself is a 360o gimbled laser system designed for use on the F-35 to target incoming missiles or aircraft via a 50-150Kw variable frequency beam.
The ABC has been tested extensively now at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Wright-Patterson AFB in Ohio, with over 250+ successful test fires of the ABC mounted to a business jet. The largest issue remained for incorporation into the F-35, with the aerodynamics of the jet and its speeds being unsuited for use of the ABC which would cause it to succumb to intense turbulence.
However Lockheed has now announced that their next generation aerodynamic and flow-control technology built into the ABC will counter-act this however coming at the cost of the removal of the forward-facing internal fuel tank on the F-35 A & C variants (the B has a vertical lift fan here instead) allowing for two ABC turrets to be mounted in the space below, with a single AN/SEQ-3 LaWS mounted to the top.
In order to counter this, Lockheed has designed a prototype conformal fuel tank to replace the internal fuel tank now removed, with the requirements being to ensure the range of the aircraft is maintained as well as its RCS with the addition of the outside fuel tanks.
The ABC also features automated integration with the AN/AAQ-37 sensor suite present in the F-35 allowing it to autonomously engage targets via the ABC and LaWS systems.
IOC on the Block 5 is expected to be in 2027, with FOC in 2028. Further block 5 upgrades will be announced at a later date.
High-Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System - HELLADS
HELLADS continues along at a good pace with DARPA and the AFRL now regularly testing the weapon at White Sands against rockets, artillery and air target drones. Last year in 2020 the first move from a static ground-based demonstrater to an airborne prototype took place with the HELLADS system being incorporated onto General Atomics own Avenger UCAV.
The HELLADS will be used on the Avenger as a 150kw laser primarily designed for engaging land and surface targets however is capable of engaging aerial targets if necessary through links to the Avengers LYNX synthetic aperture radar and Advanced Low-observable Embedded Reconnaissance Targeting (ALERT) systems providing it with targeting capability.
Additionally on from the Avenger UCAV version, General Atomics is currently testing both a ground-based mobile platform version of the system as well as a Gen 3 prototype for the navy capable of being fitted onto the Arleigh Burke and John Paul Jones class vessels.
The ground-based HELLADS will be mounted onto HMMWV and JLTV and will feature a maximum 100kw laser. The purpose of the HEL-MD is to configure ground formation units together in order to amplify the effect of multiple laser targeting against various ground based targets as well as potential air-defence applications.
Avenger-based HELLADs will be operational by 2025
Ground-based HELLADS will be operational by 2026
Naval-HELLADS incorporation is set to be operational by 2028 upon Arleigh Burke Flight III and John Paul Jones class vessels.
Self-protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator
SHiELD has now moved on to active testing in the form of a Northrop Grumman built 200kw laser pod built for use on legacy aircraft such as the F-15 and F-16. As testing continues the pod has seen effective use whilst installed upon the AC-130W aircraft currently testing it whilst research continues into incorporation onto smaller jets given power supply and aerodynamics issues.
Due to the success of Lockheeds own ABC system, the intention of placing SHiELD systems into legacy aircraft has now been discontinued and funding cancelled for this, instead SHiELD shall instead fulfil the AFSOC requirement for a HEL system in place upon the AC-130J Ghostrider with remaining R&D funding from SHiELD instead pooled to cover the $58m funding gap the AFSOC was facing regarding this.
The SHiELD system will now be utilised for targeted support missions alongside SOF insertion and will begin rollout on the AC-130J as standard.
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2020.10.08 18:01 Dorkrai cost of ticket not stated, 17 y/o

a few days ago, i got pulled over for going 87 in a 65 in ohio (i live there). i should’ve been watching my speed, i learned my lesson, etc. there was no adverse conditions, little to no traffic, it was about 6:30, and it was only listed as speeding (all of this is marked on the ticket). not reckless driving or anything, just speeding (and being a minor). my issue is, he did not tell me how much i would have to pay. he gave me a court date and that was the end of it. how worried should i be that i didn’t get assigned a ticket cost on the spot? also, i am an honors student and i participate in numerous extracurriculars, etc. another question, how likely is it i can go to traffic school and have it not go on my record/have the fee reduced due to my otherwise clean legal record?
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